Who is tipped to win the Eurovision Song Contest?

The Eurovision Song Contest, which launched the likes of Abba and Céline Dion, starts on Tuesday night in Basel, Switzerland (Wednesday morning in NZ).

It lays claim to the original televised song competition and has been running since 1956, adding thousands of amazing and downright bizarre moments to the music history books. This year, representatives from 37 mostly European countries will parade their pop songs before a panel of music professionals, a live audience and a TV viewership that topped 160 million people for last year’s final.

The 2025 winner will be determined on Saturday night in Basel. The winner is calculated by a formula of votes from music professional judges and viewers. However, viewers are not allowed to vote for their own country.

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To be eligible for entry, songs must be original and no more than three minutes long. Each country’s public broadcaster determines who will be its national representative to the competition.

Eurovision also doubles as a gambling opportunity. So far, bookmakers are predicting Sweden will win for 'Bara Bada Bastu,' a song by KAJ that celebrates sauna culture. Their performance will include dancers wrapped in towels.

Austrian singer JJ is expected to do well with his song 'Wasted Love,' which is sung in a near-impossibly high voice. More than half the song is operatic style before bursting into heavy techno.

Despite being removed from Europe, Israel has competed in the contest for more than 50 years. Last year’s competition drew protesters who demanded that Israel be removed from the contest over its war against Hamas in Gaza. This year’s entrant from Israel is Yuval Raphael with her angelic ballad 'New Day Will Rise.' Bookmakers have her as the fourth most likely to win.

Eurovision is often viewed as soft diplomacy, coming out of a fractured Europe as it recovered from World War II. However, Russia has been barred from the competition since 2022 for its invasion and continued occupation of Ukrainian territory.

There are two styles of music that will increase an entrant's chances of winning, according to Joe Bennett, forensic musicologist at Boston's Berklee College of Music who spoke to the BBC. He has analysed hundreds of Eurovision finalists, identifying two musical styles that get the best results.

Not surprisingly, the “Euro-banger” does well. The style brings a mix that is high-energy and synth-heavy. The slow-burn ballad is another top performer, according to Bennett.

Bookmakers are giving the UK’s entrant Remember Monday a one percent chance of winning. The BBC described their song 'What The Hell Just Happened' as a “souped-up, full-throttle pop anthem, it cherry-picks the best bits of Queen, Andrew Lloyd Webber and the Beatles." It has a hectic amount of tempo changes throughout.

Australia is the only country outside the European Broadcasting Area to compete in Eurovision, and it has done so for a decade. This year’s entrant is 'Milkshake Man' by Go-Jo, a catchy pop song inspired by finding confidence and self-expression, according to the artist and songwriter behind Go-Jo, Marty Zambotto.

Estonia's entrant, Tommy Cash, has stirred outrage in Italy over his song Espresso Macchiato with claims that it mocks Italian stereotypes.

One of Australia’s government broadcasters, SBS, has long supported the event, covering it since 1983, according to the ABC. Australia was offered a wildcard entry in 2015 and has been competing ever since.

Unlike Australia's longstanding commitment to the Eurovision Song Contest, New Zealand has sporadically aired the show on TV. However, New Zealanders can watch the live stream on YouTube and vote for their favourite song online.