National is on a downtrend, whether measured from mid-June or mid-July - but it is a gentle slope. After two new polls taken in late August and published on 3 September, National's latest four-poll average was 47.5%, down from 48.4%.
(Explainer: The POLL of POLLS is an arithmetical average of the four most recent major polls since mid-June from among: TV1 Colmar Brunton, TV3 Reid Research, Fairfax Media-Ipsos, NZ Herald DigiPoll, Roy Morgan New Zealand and UMR Research, which is not published.*)
Labour has stayed still low. Its latest average was 26.0%, down from 26.2%. This was still below its 2011 actual result of 27.5%.
The Greens were up again, to a 13.0% average. Since June and July, the Greens' trend has been up.
The two new polls were both taken too early to pick up fallout, if any, from the resignation of Judith Collins or National's promise of tax cuts.
Poll performance of National vs Labour vs Greens (2014). Graphic: RNZ
National's lead over Labour and the Greens combined continued to fall, to a still-strong 8.5%.
Poll performance of National vs Labour and Greens (2014). Graphic: RNZ
The two winners from the fallout from National and Labour continued to be New Zealand First, average 5.7%, and the Conservatives, average 3.6% and within sight of 5%. Internet-Mana was 2.1%, down from its 2.7% high in August, the Maori party 1.0% (not enough to bring in additional seats to Te Ururoa Flavell's electorate seat unless other candidates win electorate seats), ACT 0.6% and United Future 0.2%.
Poll performance of NZ First vs Internet-Mana vs Conservatives (2014). Graphic: RNZ
The country's mood has topped out and looks headed down in the latest Roy Morgan measure of whether the country is heading in the right or wrong direction. If the election had been at the normal time of late November the mood might have been less supportive of National.
Right track/wrong track Graphic: RNZ
(*The four polls included in the latest average were, in date order of the midpoint between the start and finish of voter interviews, UMR, TV1, Roy Morgan and TV3. The poll on whether the country is going in the right or wrong direction is from Roy Morgan New Zealand. )
