Beef and Lamb New Zealand said it was reasonably confident a Trans-Pacific Partnership deal will be signed over the next 24-hours at APEC.
Its advocacy and police manager, Dave Harrison, who is the meeting at the meeting in Vietnam, has been working closely with his counterparts in the industry from the other countries.
He said market access is the big thing the New Zealand beef industry wanted from the trade deal, with a level playing field in Japan essential.
Australia currently has a real tariff advantage in the Japanese beef market, he said.
"There trade into Japan has reached $1 billion in the past two years, whereas New Zealand's has dropped by $30m."
Mr Harrison said there was a noticeable change in attitude from the TPP countries compared with earlier talks.
"There is a move away from true trade negotiations to agreements with a little more social component to them."
Mr Harrison said his instinct was that if a deal was not signed then it would put TPP back quite a long way.
"The amount of political capital that has gone in to negotiate in the last couple of days has taken its toll in a whole lot of different ways."
Mr Harrison said he arrived in Vietnam thinking success was about 50/50 but now believed it is moving closer to 75/25 percent likely.
"All will be revealed shortly, hopefully," he said.