13 Mar 2023

New poll shows Labour could form government with Greens, Te Pāti Māori

6:14 pm on 13 March 2023
The top floors of the Beehive as seen from the roof of Parliament House.

On the latest numbers, Labour and the Greens together would have 60 seats - and would need the support of Te Pāti Māori to govern. Photo: VNP / Phil Smith

Labour could form a government with the support of the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, according to the latest 1News Kantar Public Poll.

But the two main parties are still neck and neck, with just two points separating National and Labour.

The poll sees Labour losing 2 percentage points, on 36 percent, and National losing 3, on 34 percent, with the Greens rising four points to 11 percent.

On these numbers, Labour and the Greens together would have 60 seats - and would need the support of Te Pāti Māori (up two points to 3 percent) to govern.

The ACT Party is up one point to 11 - not enough to form a government with National.

A National-ACT bloc would have just 57 seats, falling short of the magic 61 seats needed - even with Te Pāti Māori's support.

In the preferred prime minister stakes, Chris Hipkins is up four points to 27 percent.

National Leader Christopher Luxon is down five points to 17 percent.

The previous poll, released on 1 February, was the first after Chris Hipkins' ascension to the role of prime minister following the resignation of Jacinda Ardern.

It saw him take an early advantage over National's Christopher Luxon in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, along with considerably higher approval ratings and a 5 percent bump for Labour - which had previously been steadily losing support.

The latest 1News / Kantar poll (Saturday 4 March to Sunday 8 March):

  • Labour: 36 percent, down 2
  • National: 34 percent, down 3
  • ACT: 11 percent, up 1
  • Green Party: 11 percent, up 4
  • Te Pāti Māori: 3 percent, up 2
  • New Zealand First: 3 percent, up 1
  • TOP: 1 percent, steady
  • Democracy NZ: 1 percent, steady
  • New Conservative: 1 percent, steady
  • Undecided: 13 percent

Preferred PM:

  • Chris Hipkins: 27 percent, up 4
  • Christopher Luxon: 17 percent, down 5
  • David Seymour: 6 percent, steady
  • Winston Peters: 3 percent, up 1
  • Jacinda Ardern: 2 percent, down 3
  • Nicola Willis: 1 percent, up 1
  • Chloe Swarbrick: 1 percent, steady
  • Rawiri Waititi: 1 percent, up 1

The margin of error for the poll was 3.1 percent, at the 95 percent confidence interval.

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