1 Feb 2023

National loses ground to Hipkins' Labour in two new polls

10:40 am on 1 February 2023
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins speaks to media after meeting business leaders in Auckland.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins in Auckland last week. Photo: RNZ / Nick Monro

Two political polls tonight have Labour regaining lost ground against National, with leader Chris Hipkins more popular than the opposition's Christopher Luxon.

However, the strikingly similar results from both would translate to National-ACT having 60 seats in Parliament, Labour-Greens on 58. Te Pāti Māori would have two seats, and if National-ACT was unable to secure support from them it would mean a hung Parliament.

30 January - Red level weather warnings (the most severe warnings) are currently in place for Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula. Because of this the National Emergency Management Agency has issued a safety warning that the forecast heavy rain could cause flooding, slips and damage. Scroll down to find the full list of their advice for keeping safe.

Both polls are the first of the year and the first since Chris Hipkins took over as Prime Minister after Jacinda Ardern's shock resignation from the role.

The 1News Kantar poll had Labour up 5 percentage points to 38, with National down one percentage point to 37.

On preferred prime minister rankings, Hipkins - who was not even on the board for the previous poll - came out with 23 percent support, just ahead of Luxon's 22 percent.

That was even with Ardern still making a showing in the rankings at 5 percent.

Hipkins had an approval/disapproval rating of 46/10 percent, a stronger rating than Ardern achieved in the January and September polls of last year.

"The ratings indicate, that at this early stage, Chris Hipkins is not yet a polarising figure, in the same way that Jacinda Ardern later became," Kantar's analysis said.

Luxon's approval/disapproval rating meanwhile was 43/34 percent, his lowest approval rating to date.

Newshub Reid Research's poll meanwhile had Labour up 5.7 percent to 38 percentage points, ahead of National which lost 4.1 points, dropping to 36.6.

It also had Hipkins ahead on preferred prime minister stakes, with 19.6 percent support compared to Luxon's 18.8 percent. Ardern retained 12.4 percent support.

1News / Kantar (25 - 29 January):

  • Labour: 38 percent, up 5
  • National: 37 percent, down 1
  • ACT: 10 percent, down 1
  • Green Party: 7 percent, down 2
  • Te Pāti Māori: 1 percent, down 1
  • New Zealand First: 2 percent, down 2
  • TOP: 1 percent, down 1
  • Undecided: 11 percent, steady

Preferred PM:

  • Chris Hipkins: 23 percent
  • Christopher Luxon: 22 percent, down 1
  • David Seymour 6 percent, steady
  • Jacinda Ardern: 5 percent, down 24
  • Winston Peters: 2 percent, steady
  • Chloe Swarbrick: 2 percent, steady
  • Kiritapu Allan: 1 percent, up 1
  • Grant Robertson: 1 percent, up 1

Newshub / Reid Research (22 - 27 January):

  • Labour: 38 percent, up 5.7
  • National: 36.6 percent, down 4.1
  • ACT: 10.7 percent, down 0.7
  • Green Party: 8.1 percent, down 1.4
  • Te Pāti Māori: 1.8 percent, down 0.1
  • New Zealand First: 2.2 percent, down 1.1
  • TOP: 1.5 percent, up 0.3

Preferred PM:

  • Chris Hipkins: 19.6 percent
  • Christopher Luxon: 18.8 percent, down 2.7
  • David Seymour 8 percent, up 0.7
  • Jacinda Ardern: 12.4 percent, down 17.5
  • Leighton Baker: 3.9 percent, steady
  • Winston Peters: 2.9 percent, up 1.3

Margin of error for both polls was 3.1 percent.

Because of the red level weather warnings issued for Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula, the National Emergency Management Agency has posted advice on how to keep safe:

  • Red weather warnings are the most severe warnings. The forecast weather could cause further flooding, slips and damage
  • People should stay up to date with the forecasts from MetService and continue to follow the advice of civil defence and emergency services
  • If you have evacuated, please stay where you are until you are given the all-clear to go home.
  • Stay away from floodwater. Always assume that all flood water is potentially contaminated and ensure hands, clothes and property are thoroughly cleaned after contact with flood waters
  • It is important to clean and dry your house and everything in it. Do not eat garden produce if the soil has been flooded
  • Throw away all food and drinking water that has come in contact with floodwater, including things stored in containers
  • Information about where to get help can be found on the Civil Defence website and from Auckland Emergency Management
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