5 Dec 2022

Latest political poll has Labour, National locked in head-to-head battle

6:38 pm on 5 December 2022


The two major parties are still locked in a head-to-head battle, with little movement between them in the latest One News Kantar Public poll.

Labour is down one point to 33 percent, with National nudging up one to 38 percent.

Other parties picking up support are ACT, up two to 11 percent, and New Zealand First, up one point to four percent.

The Greens and Te Pāti Māori are both steady, on nine and two percent respectively.

National leader Christopher Luxon has gained some ground in the preferred prime minister stakes, up two to 23-percent, still trailing Labour's Jacinda Ardern who's down one to 29 percent.

One notable movement since the last survey in September is in the number of people who feel pessimistic about the economic outlook - up 23 points to 61 percent.

Under these numbers National and ACT would have enough support to form a government.

Translated to seats in Parliament, National (49) and ACT (15) would be expected to secure 64 MPs based on the poll numbers - more than the 61 needed to govern.

Labour (42) and the Greens (11) would be expected to win 53.

Labour's result of 33 percent is its joint-lowest result since winning the election in 2017.

There were 1011 egible voters polled between November 26-30 by mobile phone (503) and online, using online panels (508).

The maximum sampling error is approximately 3.1 pecent points at the 95 percent confidence level.

The sample for mobile phones was selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample was collected using an online panel.