9 Mar 2023

Labour rises in new Curia poll, Greens dangerously close to threshold

6:05 pm on 9 March 2023
The Beehive

Photo: RNZ / Dom Thomas

Labour has taken the lead in the Taxpayers Union-Curia poll for the first time since March 2022, up 1.1 points from last month to 35.5 percent, while National is up 0.4 points to 34.8 percent.

It still would not be enough for Labour to form a government, thanks to the fortunes of ACT and the Green Party.

ACT dropped 2.4 points to 9.3 percent, but National would still be able to form a government with its support.

The Greens have dropped 2.1 points to 5.7 percent - dangerously close to the 5 percent threshold needed to stay in Parliament, if they fail to secure an electorate seat.

Of the smaller parties, New Zealand First polled 4.2 percent (up 1.3 points), the New Conservatives on 2.5 percent (up 1.7 points), TOP on 1.7 percent ( down 0.3 points), Te Pāti Māori 1.4 percent (down 0.7 points), Vision NZ 0.8 percent (up 0.6 points) and Democracy NZ 0.5 percent (down 0.4 points).

Translated to seats in the house, Labour would have 49, National 48, ACT 13, the Greens 8, and Te Pāti Māori 2.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins' personal popularity continued to rise, with his net favourability rating sitting at +33 percent, up 6 points from last month (54 percent favourable vs 21 percent unfavourable).

He also had a positive net favourability with National voters, on +13 percent (up 17 points from -4 percent last month).

National leader Christopher Luxon's net favourability increased by 3 points, from -5 percent to -2 percent. ACT's David Seymour has had a 12 point bump to +1 percent. Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni is at -8 percent (up 4 points).

In the preferred prime minister stakes, Hipkins held steady at 30 percent while Christopher Luxon dropped 5 points to 21 percent. David Seymour was third on 8 percent.

Former prime minister Jacinda Ardern still had a presence, with her 7 percent putting her fourth - ahead of Winston Peters, Chlöe Swarbrick, Matt King, Nicola Willis, and James Shaw.

While respondents still see National as better economic managers, Labour is closing the gap. National dropped 6 points on that issue (45.7 percent vs Labour's 31.9 percent), and also saw its lead cut on fighting inflation (41.4 percent vs 29.2 percent) and law and order (32.6 percent vs 24.1 percent).

Labour still leads on health and leadership, and has retaken the lead on jobs.

The poll was conduced from Thursday 2 to Tuesday 7 March. It surveyed 1000 people (800 by phone, 200 by online panel), with a margin of error +/- 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

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