There has been a major breakthrough towards resolving the standoff over Ihumātao, with an initial deal expected to go to Cabinet today.
RNZ understands the deal is for Fletcher Building to sell the land to the government, the first step in reaching a resolution; with agreement from Fletchers and Kīingitanga, on behalf of mana whenua.
While this would remove Fletchers from the equation, more work to then decide how the government and mana whenua reach a final agreement about the land would likely still have to be done.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern would not say if a resolution would be reached this week.
"I've got nothing to announce today.
"When we have an announcement on Ihumātao, we'll be making it," she told Morning Report.
She said Kīingitanga had been primarily leading the talks on the side of mana whenua.
"There's a number of different options put on the table.
"From the Crown's perspective, we cannot undermine the Treaty process; at the same time, everyone wants a resolution. At the moment there's a stalemate."
She ruled out visiting Ihumātao just yet.
"I will visit the site, but I will be looking for a resolution first."
Attempts by Labour ministers to get a Cabinet-mandated resolution were repeatedly blocked last term by coalition partner New Zealand First, which was voted out of Parliament at the election.
'We're hopeful' - Pania Newton
Save Our Unique Landscape (SOUL) group member Pania Newton told Morning Report she was aware the government was working on a possible resolution before 14 December - a date which was the "prime minister's decision".
It was important for Ardern to visit in the initial stages of the escalation last year to get an understanding of the whenua, she said.
"We're just really looking forward to what the resolution might be."
Newton said the group had been patient through Covid-19 and the election, but were hopeful for an outcome in their favour.
"We're still here on the frontline, enjoying this whenua and being able to communicate with others who come to visit [as to] why this place is so significant and why it's been afforded the highest heritage listing in the country."
There were about five families living there and they rotated with others who wanted to experience the "reclamation", she said.
Newton said if there was no update from Cabinet today, it would be business as usual gearing up for Christmas and the New Year.
It has been about 18 months since protesters flocked to the disputed land in South Auckland to support occupiers who were delivered an eviction notice, bringing Fletcher Building's plans to build 480 houses to a halt.
Ihumātao is located next to the Ōtuataua Stonefields Historic Reserve in Māngere - home to New Zealand's earliest market gardens and a significant archaeological site on land considered wahi tapu, or sacred, by local hapū and iwi.
Local and central government were reluctant to come riding to the rescue but, under pressure, Ardern promised no building would take place at Ihumātao while the government and other parties worked to broker a solution.
And there it has remained with various deals, discussions and attempts at resolution appearing then fading away - but the recent election result was the game changer.
New Zealand First, and its leader and former deputy prime minister Winston Peters, vowed throughout to block any taxpayer money being spent on resolving the dispute and warned of the "domino" effect it would have on sparking potential Treaty of Waitangi rows over land elsewhere. His party was in coalition with Labour, and consensus on decisions around the Cabinet had to be reached before any action could be taken.
During the election campaign he delivered a speech from Orewa calling the protesters "malcontents who got so much unjustified publicity, sticking mainly in the throat of traditional Māori".
Peters said his party had said no to Labour "three times" and refused a request from its coalition partner to invoke the "agree to disagree" clause.
"For us, it was a matter of deep principle. For us, it was fundamental to whether we maintained confidence in Labour. So we told Labour that. And staved off any action before the election."
He predicted Labour would move to do a deal if elected, which is what RNZ understands is now happening. This is the fourth policy it has moved on since the election, where New Zealand First had been a stumbling block in the previous term.
Even with Fletchers out of the picture it could be a long process before the dispute is fully resolved, but this way Ardern could go to the big events that kick off the 2021 political year - Rātana and Waitangi - with some progress to show.
There was speculation back in June a deal was coming together, under which the land would be acquired under the Housing Act, avoiding any conflicts with Treaty of Waitangi settlements but not necessarily meaning any houses would be built there.
The government would want to come up with an agreement that does not set a precedent for other land that could become subject to challenge. RNZ has previously reported on discussions about setting up a "rōpū whakahaere" - a governing body comprising "both central and local government and mana whenua representatives ... to make any decisions about the land".
In September last year, the Māori King, Kiingi Tūheitia, announced on behalf of mana whenua they had reached consensus over what to do with Ihumātao, and their position was they wanted it back.
Ardern should 'tell protesters to go home' - Collins
National says the Ardern helped create the standoff at Ihumātao and taxpayers should not have to bail her out.
"The government will open a Pandora's Box if it spends even a single cent of taxpayer money on cleaning up the mess it made at Ihumātao," leader Judith Collins said.
"The prime minister needs to explain why she thinks it's appropriate to meddle in private property rights with taxpayers' money because she will be setting an appalling precedent.
"It's difficult to fathom that with more than 20,000 Kiwi families currently waiting for a home the government is prepared to spend millions stopping 480 much-needed houses from being built," Collins said.
She also warned about the precedent it could set, placing a "question mark over all full and final Treaty settlements, and the protesters at Shelly Bay will know they've only got to sit tight and wait for the government to step in".
"The decision should have been an easy one. The prime minister had no right to get involved in the first place other than to tell protesters to go home, which is what she should do now."