After this week's stream of polls, including TV1's poll published on the evening of September 5, National is back in the box seat with 50.2% on the latest four-poll average.
(Explainer: The POLL of POLLS is an arithmetical average of the four most recent major polls since mid-June from among: TV1 Colmar Brunton, TV3 Reid Research, Fairfax Media-Ipsos, NZ Herald DigiPoll, Roy Morgan New Zealand and UMR Research, which is not published.*)
Labour plunged to a new four-poll average of 25.0%, its lowest since at least 2008 and probably since the mid-1990s.
The Greens slipped to 12.0% as a high rating in a Morgan poll dropped out of the average.
Poll performance of National vs Labour vs Greens (2014). Graphic: RNZ
National's lead over Labour and the Greens combined climbed to 13.2%.
Poll performance of National vs Labour and Greens (2014). Graphic: RNZ
The two winners from the dirty politics furore, New Zealand First and the Conservatives, were at 5.6% and 3.3% respectively. Internet Mana was 2.2% and the Maori party was 0.9%. ACT was 0.3% and United Future 0.2%, levels at which David Seymour's and Peter Dunne's seats, if they win them would be "overhangs" and push the number of seats in Parliament to 122.
Poll performance of NZ First vs Internet-Mana vs Conservatives (2014). Graphic: RNZ
The country's mood has topped out and looks headed down in the latest Roy Morgan measure of whether the country is heading in the right or wrong direction. If the election had been at the normal time of late November the mood might have been less supportive of National.
Graphic: RNZ
(* The four polls included in the latest average were, in date order of the midpoint between the start and finish of voter interviews, TV3, New Zealand Herald, Fairfax and TV1. The poll on whether the country is going in the right or wrong direction is from Roy Morgan New Zealand.)
