8 Dec 2021

Price pressure shifts to higher valued housing - QV

9:23 am on 8 December 2021

The latest round of house valuations indicates a shift in the market with an increasing number of homes failing to sell at auction.

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Photo: 123rf.com

QV's latest figures for the three months to November indicate the price pressure had shifted from lower valued properties, once popular with investors and first home buyers, to higher valued housing.

All 16 areas surveyed by QV saw an increase in average values over the past three months, with a 6.9 percent national increase to $1,029,820.

However, much of that increase was driven by rising prices for the top 25 percent of properties by value.

"This isn't a surprise given rising interest rates, changes to LVRs (loan-to-value bank restrictions) last month and now a further tightening of credit rules from December," QV general manager David Nagel said, as those measures would have less impact on high-end buyers with easier access to credit.

"While the November numbers look extremely bullish there are growing signs that this property growth cycle is starting to transition," Nagel said, adding attendance at open homes was falling, while there was a significant upswing in listings.

"Some properties are being passed in at auctions, which was unheard of a few months ago. I think it's a new game from what we saw three or four months ago."

Nagel said efforts to cool the market had taken a number of buyers out of the market, just as stock numbers were starting to increase.

"What has been driving this growth from the early part of last year has been from historically low interest rates and also a shortage of stock. There's been very few listing and so just normal supply and demand pressures where you've got more buyers than sellers you're going to have price increases.

"That's turned on its head now because we've got a massive number of listings that have occurred over the last three weeks ... about 30 percent more listings than there were last year. That's a real game changer and of course we've got interest rates on the rise, forecast to increase for next year as well.

"Probably the most concerning factor for would-be buyers is the availability of credit has drying up. That's taking a lot of the buyers out of the market. When we look under the hood of the data we see at entry-level there's a lot more sellers than there are buyers."

Property prices have still grown over the past three months because people unaffected by measures to cool the market were active.

"It's people that aren't affected so much by a rise in interest rates and the availability of credit. They may be high income earning New Zealanders or they may be coming back to New Zealand and of course they've got plenty of money to spend."

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