The official cyclone season for the region runs from November to April. Photo: The Solomon Islands Meteorological Service
Meteorologists are predicting five to nine cyclones for the southwest Pacific in the coming season.
The official cyclone season for this region runs from November to April.
The forecast issued by Earth Sciences New Zealand said the risk of impact from a tropical cyclone is expected to be higher to the west, near the Coral Sea and around New Caledonia and Vanuatu.
Principal scientist Chris Brandolino told Pacific Waves that it is likely there will be "anywhere from two to maybe four severe tropical cyclones."
He said category systems, which go from one to five, are used to help understand the intensity of the cyclones, one being the weakest and five being the strongest.
High winds and low air pressure often accompany tropical cyclones, creating a storm tide or storm surge where sea levels become elevated.
However, he said that people should not be fixated on categories.
"You got to remember, a tropical cyclone is an area, not a point," Brandolino said.
"So often times, people may hear in the media or from their national meteorological provider... that understands or articulates rather where the centre of the storm is, that's just where the centre of the storm is, but again it's not a point."
Brandolino pointed out that impacts from the cyclone are often felt away from the core, but said it does not take a severe tropical cyclone to cause severe damage.
"If a tropical cyclone, let's say it's a category one or category two, something that's on the lower end of the scale, if that tropical cyclone isn't moving much, let's say it's moving slowly, it can produce heavy rain for an extended period of time, which could really cause things like flash flooding, slips and create some really devastating impacts."
Brandolio explained that cyclones thrive in warmer conditions as typically seen during the La Niña periods which he describes as a "climate driver".
In La Niña conditions, water temperatures are usually warmer than usual in the western areas of the Pacific Ocean, whereas conditions in further east are cooler.
"Tropical cyclones really like warm ocean waters, generally speaking around 26 27 degrees - that's sort of the magical threshold to sustain a tropical cyclone," Brandolino said.
"When we have La Niña, what that tends to do is it tends to favour warmer than usual waters in the western side of the basin. So over toward Papua New Guinea over toward Vanuatu, over New Caledonia the Solomons basically near and west of the dateline.
In 2023, Vanuatu was struck with three tropical cyclones in the space of three months.
Category four twin cyclones Kevin and Judy made landfall in March 2023 within days of each other, followed by category five Cyclone Lola in October, which arrived earlier than anticipated outside of the cyclone season.
Brandolino confirmed it is not unusual for tropical cyclones to form earlier.
"It doesn't mean that we can't get a tropical cyclone or two in November or December, of course that can happen. But when you look at history, news history as a guide, it's February, it's March even into early April, that tends to favour increased activity because oceans are at their warmest."
Four people in Vanuatu died from Cyclone Lola, which also destroyed homes, schools and plantations.
Eighteen months on, Ni-Vanuatu communities are learning to be more climate resilient, developing plans to offset the impacts in the event of another cyclone.
Brandolino said preparation is key.
"Stay on top of the forecast," he said.
"Listen to your national MET agency, whether you're in Fiji or New Caledonia or the Cooks or Samoa or anywhere in the Pacific and the tropics."
