Bougainville's President Ishmael Toroama says the autonomous region is preparing to become independent by 2025. He has also said Bougainville will have self government by 2022.
An overwhelming majority of voters supported Bougainville gaining independence from Papua New Guinea, in a 2019 referendum. Photo: RNZ Pacific / Johnny Blades
Last month, in what has been called the Sharp Agreement, both the Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, James Marape and Toroama reached a deal to speed up the transfer of powers.
That goal is becoming increasingly realisable as more powers are handed over by the Papua New Guinean government.
Independence is the desire of a vast majority of Bougainvilleans according to an almost unanimous November 2019 referendum. But a lot still has to happen first.
Anthony Regan has spent years providing advice to Bougainville governments. These days he is a research fellow at the Department of Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University in Canberra.
RNZ Pacific's Don Wiseman asked Regan what the chances are of Bougainville achieving independence by 2025.
"Very hard to say ... they want to have international recognition of their independence by 2025. And they say that means UN membership," Regan says.
Photo: Supplied/ Australian National University
"But it is very hard to get UN membership if a parent state doesn't support you. Kosovo for example, made a unilateral declaration of independence in 2008. And has still not got recognition from about 50 percent of the world's countries, as well as being opposed by some members of the Security Council.
"So you can sit in limbo for a very long time if you don't have parent company country support.
"I think the Bougainville leaders are very aware of that, and are really working hard to try and get PNG to agree to independence. They're arguing that the referendum was a joint exercise, and that it showed overwhelming support for independence. It was of course nearly 98 percent in favour, with an 87 percent turnout on a very good roll, in a referendum that was judged by international experts - international observers, to be free and fair and legitimate.
"So they argue that they've got a very strong moral and democratic case for their independence."
But Regan says it is very hard for PNG to accept this, given their worries that it would create a precedent and could encourage other provincesto go down the same road, leading to the dissolution of PNG.
In the past PNG MPs have been staunchly against independence for Bougainville. Does Regan have any indication attitudes have shifted in recent times?
"It's very hard to judge it," he says. "We don't have anything like an opinion poll of feeling amongst MPs. We can't point to political party platforms in the way we could in New Zealand or Australia as a guide to what members might do.
PNG Prime Minister James Marape and Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama Photo: supplied
"We've got [Peter] O'Neill, the previous prime minister, who has always asserted that the members of parliament would vote unanimously against independence.
"Several members at different stages in public forums have indicated their support for Bougainville independence. There was a big conference organised by the PNG National Research Institute in 2018 - there was several MPs there who spoke quite openly about their belief that Bougainville deserved independence ... if the referendum was overwhelmingly in favour of it.
"So there's undoubtedly some support for independence in the parliament. Personally, I doubt that it would be overwhelming support at this stage."
Papua New Guinea's parliament. Photo: AFP
But it's incumbent on national MPs to follow the direction that comes from the consultations. So, when they receive a document for ratification, that will be it, won't it?
"Well, it's all a little bit unclear," Regan says. "Yeah, the constitution and the base agreement provide that there must be consultation between the two governments after the referendum.
"Then it says: subject to that consultation, it goes to parliament. And the [2001 Bougainville] Peace Agreement indicates that if it goes to parliament it doesn't have to if the consultations don't agree to that.
"If it goes to parliament, then [the] final decision- making authority is with the parliament. But what's often not recognised is that the very next section of the constitution, after the consultation and the parliamentary roll, is a provision about disputes about the referendum. And it states, quite specifically, that disputes can go to the dispute resolution procedure, which the constitution elsewhere sets up for dealing with disputes between Papua New Guinea and Bougainville. And that could involve references even to the Supreme Court.
"So, you could imagine the Supreme Court being called upon to rule about the constitutionality of independence after a referendum. And that's the same way the Canadian Supreme Court did on the referendum in Quebec in 1998. It's a much more uncertain set of processes than most people have acknowledged so far, I think."
However, the key mechanism for events to proceed is for the two governments to talk to each other, and the Joint Supervisory Body is to meet next week in Wabag.
The meeting will continue to develop the framework for negotiations over the referendum results.
It was due to have happened this week, but for the sudden death of health minister Raymond Masono.
