Analysis by Aaron Blake, CNN
US President Donald Trump. Photo: Al Drago/Getty Images/File via CNN Newsource
Analysis: US President Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential race after his initial opponent, then-President Joe Biden, withdrew over worries about his age and mental sharpness.
But a year-plus into Trump's four-year term, polls suggest the American people aren't just increasingly unhappy with his job performance; they're increasingly concerned about his mental capacity as well.
The unease is not at the levels it was with Biden, who was 81 when he dropped out of the race, but it's growing as an issue for the 79-year-old Trump.
In fact, multiple recent polls show a majority of Americans questioning it in one way or another. And even many Republicans seem to have concerns.
Perhaps the most striking poll came Tuesday (local time), ahead of Trump's first State of the Union address of his second term, which beat his own record for the longest speech to Congress.
The Reuters-Ipsos poll showed 61 percent of Americans agreed that Trump has "become erratic with age." Even 30 percent of Republicans agreed with that sentiment.
The survey harks back to some surveys in Trump's first term, when many Americans grew to question his mental acuity. But while the percentage of registered voters saying he wasn't "mentally stable" approached 50 percent in Quinnipiac University polling following the attack on the US Capitol in 2021, it never crested a majority - much less hitting 61 percent. ("Erratic" is, of course, not the same as "unstable." But they are along the same lines.)
The Reuters-Ipsos poll also showed a decrease in the percentage of Americans who say Trump is "mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges." That number has dropped from 54 percent in September 2023 to 45 percent today.
But Trump - who often boasts about acing cognitive tests and who spoke for an hour and 47 minutes on Tuesday night - is still nowhere close to where Biden was; only around one-quarter of Americans said Biden was mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges in July 2024, the month he dropped out of the race.
Other polls echo these findings, including one from CNN last month.
That survey showed the percentage saying Trump has the "stamina and sharpness to serve effectively as president" declining from 53 percent in late 2023 to 46 percent today.
That 46 percent is still well clear of where Biden was in 2023 (between 25 percent and 32 percent).
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll last week showed majorities said Trump didn't have the mental sharpness (56 percent) or physical health (51 percent) it takes to serve effectively.
The former is up 13 points from May 2023, while the latter is up even more - by 23 points.
Those numbers aren't where Biden was late in his presidency, when he was in the 60s on both measures. But the percentage who doubts Trump's mental sharpness (56 percent) is actually similar to where Biden was at this point in his term. In February 2022, Biden was at 54 percent on this question.
And, finally, is a Pew Research Centre survey conducted last month.
It showed the percentage of Americans who are at least "very confident" that Trump has the mental fitness to do the job dropping from 39 percent a year ago to 32 percent today.
The percentage who are at least "very confident" that he has the physical fitness has dropped from 35 percent to 28 percent.
And similar to the Reuters-Ipsos poll, the numbers among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents should raise some eyebrows. The percentage of them who are "very confident" in Trump's mental fitness has dropped from 75 percent to 66 percent. On physical fitness, he's dropped from 65 percent to 55 percent.
So in both the Reuters and Pew polls, we're seeing three in 10 people (or more) in Trump's own base express some concern about this issue.
Again, Biden had worse numbers overall. By April 2024, the percentage of voters saying they were "very confident" was only 21 percent for mental fitness and 15 percent for physical fitness. CNN polling showed as much as half of his base said Biden didn't have the requisite stamina and sharpness.
But why might Trump's numbers on these measures be worsening?
One explanation is that they're simply falling alongside his popularity. As people sour on Trump overall, perhaps they're more likely to view his often-strange public performances in a more negative light.
But we're also seeing these concerns register even with some Americans who are more inclined to view Trump favourably. It's certainly possible that his verbal stumbles - things like repeatedly mixing up Iceland and Greenland - are registering. It's also possible that scrutiny of bruises on Trump's hands and whether he's fallen asleep during public events - as well as the White House's slow disclosures about his medical testing and his more limited public schedule - are leading some people to raise more questions than they otherwise might.
Regardless, what's clear is that the oldest president ever elected is now having to deal with this issue, just like the previous holder of that title did a few years ago.
-CNN
