Whangamatā is one of the Coromandel Peninsula's summer hotspots. Photo: 123RF
With tourism numbers back to pre-Covid levels, New Zealanders are getting ready for a swarm of tourists. Experts say tourists - local or not - should be ready for some changeable weather.
Tourists chasing the classic Kiwi summer of bright blue skies and postcard-perfect beaches are being warned to prepare for a season that could serve up everything from scorching heat to sudden downpours - sometimes in the same afternoon.
Earth Sciences New Zealand principal scientist and meteorologist Chris Brandolino warns that tourists are often unprepared for the strength and unpredictability of Kiwi weather.
"People coming from overseas, they probably don't have a full appreciation of our weather and climate, particularly the strength of the sun - how stinking strong the sun is in December and January and how quickly you can get a sunburn ... and just how quickly the weather can change once you gain altitude and put yourself in a mountainous environment, how darn quickly that can change," Brandolino tells The Detail.
"So, I think that's something that people [visiting New Zealand] may not fully appreciate."
From the alpine peaks of Queenstown to the golden beaches of the Coromandel, summer favourite spots are preparing for a season that may be busier and more unpredictable than usual.
Brandolino says for those who want warmer temperatures, the upper North Island is "your best bet, but if you don't mind a bit of uncertainty, running the risk for cooler temperatures, the South Island is the place to be".
And he's quick to point out, when it comes to forecasting the long-term summer holiday weather, it comes down to "one woman".
"With these three-month outlooks, what we are trying to do is predict mother nature's personality.
"A weather forecast? That's mother nature's mood, and most times if you get the personality right, the mood will be aligned with that, but there can be some days where it doesn't."
He strongly encourages tourists to use local weather apps daily, especially when crossing mountain passes or going hiking, due to how rapidly conditions can change.
"The mountains are notoriously difficult to forecast for; they can create their own sort of environment sometimes, it seems like.
"You can hop in your caravan ... and it's expected to be a hot day, but you get to the mountain, you start gaining altitude, and it all changes quickly. Temperatures drop fast, the wind picks up, and hypothermia becomes a real thing."
'People are coming again'
Tourists are encouraged to check both heat and rain - even on the same day - and to check forecasts every morning and afternoon, protect themselves from UV year-round, be cautious on mountain hikes, stay updated on road conditions, have a backup plan for any outdoor activity, and never underestimate a river, track, or coastline.
And it's likely there will be a lot of tourists to heed this advice this summer - international tourism numbers have bounced back close to pre-Covid levels, with expectations they'll hit the 2030 goal of five million a year and worth of $55 billion.
Lincoln University associate professor of parks, recreation and tourism Dr Stephen Espiner says grand ambitions for a tourism reset after borders were closed during Covid have not been fulfilled.
"People are coming again, they're getting into the national parks, they're visiting places like Tekapo and Te Anau and Milford Sound in numbers as great as before and some of those have well exceeded the pre-pandemic numbers already," he says.
"Many of the very same impacts that were beginning to be problematic in 2019 are with us today."
One of Espiner's specialities is hazard management and communication, and getting the message to tourists. As the country faces more extreme weather events, he says it is an area of growing interest among councils and agencies like Department of Conservation which want to understand more about how visitors can stay safe, "whether that's from natural hazards to do with rockfall or avalanches or to do with forest fires as we've seen in the media recently," Espiner says.
DOC closes tracks and bridges if they are deemed unsafe but visitors don't always comply with messages or warning signs. Espiner cites the popular Cathedral Cove in the Coromandel as an example.
"The track was closed for nearly two years after storm damage and the public compliance around that signage was a long way from perfect.
"People went anyway, especially locals and New Zealand domestic visitors, they make their own assessment and decide, "oh it doesn't look too bad to me' and they'll have a crack anyway.
"It was certainly frowned upon by the authorities and caused some stress for those managing the place."
Espiner says as the country grapples with more extreme weather events, getting the message out will be crucial, starting in schools and on outdoor education courses.
The sign at the site of the closed bridge or track should be the last reminder.
"It's your last chance to convince."
Espiner suggests push messaging has potential as a method for warning people about hazards.
"With each of us carrying a mobile device these days, there is opportunity to warn people of particular hazards, as we well know, through things like tsunami alerts and earthquakes.
"You could use similar things presumably with wildfires or with weather events.
"If you were ever going to go and do the Heaphy track and if one thing you decided to do was to sign up to some sort of push notification service, it could be very useful to you to be warned of a heavy rainfall event or a track closure or some other incident."
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