When Auckland does well, so does the rest of the country. But by 2030, when 40 per cent of the population is predicted to be living there, the difference between our largest city and the rest of the country will be more stark – and the future’s not bright for some small towns.
The Auckland of 2030 will be a more globally-connected, international city than it is today – more like Sydney or Toronto – and home to a full 40 per cent of the population. Deputy mayor Penny Hulse wants to see a dynamic, liveable city with a diverse economy, minimal sprawl and great public transport, where people have the option to buy or rent their home – and that the finalising of Auckland Council’s Unitary Plan was a step towards achieving that goal.
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By contrast, some rural and provincial areas will be struggling, with declining or flat populations and economies. The people who do live there are likely to be elderly, and there are concerns that there won’t even be the workers or infrastructure to support them. As Professor Paul Spoonley of Massey University, the project leader for a research programme looking at the future population, puts it: “Who will wipe our chins?”
WATCH: Professor Paul Spoonley of Massey University discusses how migration could help the elderly living in rural areas.
Such small communities, boldly dubbed “zombie towns” by New Zealand Institute of Economic Research principal economist Shamubeel Eaqub, will find themselves “on a knife edge” – and that some will simply need to close. Northland, the East Cape, Manawatu, Gisborne, Wanganui and parts of the central North Island are among the towns that face uncertain futures.
LISTEN: Economist Shamubeel Eaqub talks to The Wireless producer Elle Hunt about home ownership, “zombie towns”, and the future of the regions.
There’s no obvious strategy for those regions that are experiencing a decline. Encouraging migrant workers to relocate there could help; it has already had a positive impact in Southland, where they’ve been actively recruited to the dairy industry (albeit not entirely positively). But the solution isn’t as simple as shifting people to rural areas if there aren’t jobs for them when they get there.
Owning your own home, particularly as a young person, has always been a more achievable goal in the regions than in the urban centre – but even the sharp decrease in house prices in rural areas doesn’t provide an incentive to move there. “The reason house prices are falling is because it doesn’t make sense to live in those places.”
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Even today, it’s fair to say that choosing to live in urban centres means giving up on home ownership, with the current rate the lowest it has been since 1951. Median house prices are more than five times the median household income, and in Auckland, more than seven (a ratio of about three is considered healthy).
But it will take time to reverse those trends, and the precarious job market predicted of the future might discourage people from wanting to tie themselves down with a property or a mortgage anyway. Eaqub suggests the best we can hope for of the coming decade is more options and flexibility when it comes to renting, like longer-term leases and tenancy agreements that allow pets and minor alternations, that enable people to “mimic the benefits of home ownership”.
We’re not competing with Wellington or Dunedin, we’re competing with Brisbane, Capetown, Hamburg, Toronto
As for the so-called zombie towns, there’s no obvious solution. Restricting growth in Auckland would not benefit the regions. For New Zealand to do well, Auckland needs to do better – and first it needs to own its position in the nation, says Penny Hulse. “Auckland has managed to be both apologetic to the rest of the country for being so big. We need to say … we will be very good neighbours and we will spread the benefits through the rest of the country.
“We’re not competing with Wellington or Dunedin, we’re competing with Brisbane, Capetown, Hamburg, Toronto.”
Lillian Grace, the founder of Wiki New Zealand, a collaborative website that makes data accessible, says Auckland needs to confer more with the regions “in a humble way” on the vision of New Zealand it’s marketing to the rest of the world. She believes that restructuring local government for more cohesion across the regions could be a good starting point.
WATCH: Wiki New Zealand chief executive Lillian Grace explains how more ties and communication between the 16 regions could benefit the entire country.
Hulse also believes that the entire country stands to benefit from increase communication and collaboration between central and local government. “We’ve both holding onto bits of the solution, and we just need to get over it and share,” she says. “Part of that is finding new ways of doing democracy. Local government needs to hand some stuff back to the community and say ‘You know what, you guys are probably better at this than we are’, and central government needs to do the same with local government – I think we could be a hell of a lot better off.”
But Eaqub suggests the first step might be more simple than that. “If there’s any conversation we should be having it’s really about, when we lift our sights, what does medium to long-term success look like? What’s our vision, where do we want to be? … I always ask baby boomers, ‘What kind of place do you want to leave for your grandchildren?’”
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Cover image by Doug Gaylard / Photo New Zealand.
