NZ Warriors lose grip on NRL top four with third third straight defeat

Analysis: After back-to-back losses to teams they should really have rolled over, NZ Warriors took on Canterbury Bulldogs needing to make a statement about their NRL championship aspirations.

The Bulldogs had been among the competition frontrunners all season, but were vulnerable after slipping up against rebuilding Wests Tigers in the rain last week.

There were also some doubts about their ability to perform in inclement conditions, so the rugby league gods seemed to smile on the Aucklanders, when they opened up the heavens shortly before kickoff.

Ultimately, the only statement made by the Warriors was that they did not deserve to return to the top four on the ladder - a spot they lost on Friday, when four-time defending champions Penrith Panthers won their ninth in a row.

"A lot of stuff was self-inflicted, though errors or lack of concentration," reflected coach Andrew Webster. "We had intent… but we just weren't thinking correctly and the 'Dogs suffocated us with great tactics.

"They kicked early, got a lot of repeat sets and made us come out of the corner."

While other results fell their way this weekend, the Warriors may be lucky to even stay among the playoff eight.

Here's a post-mortem on the 32-14 loss to the Bulldogs, their third straight defeat.

The big switcheroo

Sometimes the most important things to come from weekly media sessions are those that remain unsaid.

This week, co-captain James Fisher-Harris tried to cool speculation that he would take the field against the Bulldogs, insisting his niggly calf injury was progressing, but he would come back when the time was right.

The very fact he stood in front of TV cameras and voice recorders was virtual confirmation he would suit up, albeit in the unfamiliar No.23 jersey, and he was duly included 24 hours out from kickoff.

The other unspoken truth came from utility Te Maire Martin, who had filled in at five-eighth last week against the Dolphins, but seemed destined to return to the interchange, with Chanel Harris-Tavita also due back from calf injury.

Asked if he had any clarity about his role against the Bulldogs, Martin replied he didn't, because some players still had to pass fitness tests - which was true.

On Saturday afternoon, his status became much clearer, as halfback Tanah Boyd, named for his fifth game in the jersey, turned out for the reserves instead, as they extended their unbeaten NSW Cup run to 16 games with a late comeback.

An hour before kickoff, Webster confirmed Martin would replace Boyd in the halves.

Since replacing Luke Metcalf, who tore up his knee six weeks ago, Boyd had performed adequately, without making anyone forget how great his predecessor had been, as he made his way to the top of the Dally M Medal voting.

Boyd's kicking game was spot on against Wests Tigers in his Warriors debut, but he just wasn't the same open-field threat as Metcalf and Martin's full game in the halves last week may have convinced Webster the change was worth making, after consecutive defeats.

Ironically, Boyd's boot may have been better suited to the terrible conditions in Sydney.

Then, 23 minutes into the contest, Martin suffered a head knock in a tackle and was immediately ruled out with concussion.

"Everything's tough when you lose your playmaker," Webster said. "We had a really good week at training.

"He forced his way into the team with some good performances and his training all year."

Specialist fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad - already filling in at centre - was moved to the halves, with second-rower Kurt Capewell - finally back in his rightful place - consigned back to the midfield.

Their predicament was made worse, when both Capewell and fellow forward Leka Halasima, another capable of filling in at centre, also spent time on the sideline for concussion checks.

Harris-Tavita, who had virtually conceded kicking duties to Boyd, was suddenly the only recognised kicker in the line-up.

"When we lost Te Maire, Chanel was a one-man band as a playmaker and it was pretty easy to see where the ball was going," Webster said.

Tellingly, perhaps the best Warriors kick of the night came from lock Erin Clark - a half in his junior days - whose spiral punt in the final seconds showing some potential.

Not only did Webster's bold move backfire badly, he now has to offer the No.7 jersey back to Boyd, with Martin ruled out next week against St George-Illawarra Dragons.

The smaller switcheroo

Unfortunately, halfback wasn't the only position Webster tinkered with before kickoff.

With veteran Wayde Egan rested another week to rehab a shoulder niggle, understudy Sam Healey was named in the starting line-up, after two bright performances in his previous two opportunities.

In the hours before kickoff, he was also relegated to the interchange, with Freddy Lussick - who has backed up Healey in reserve grade, often forced to play at prop for game-time - promoted in his place.

Whether the change was linked to the Martin-Boyd move or the conditions, Healey's ball-running presence was sorely missed.

Within a few minutes of checking into the game, he manufactured the Warriors' first and only real try, when he grubbered to the ingoal, chased and won the race to touch down, giving his team a sniff at 24-8 with 25 minutes to play.

Key moment

The score was locked at 2-2, when Bulldogs five-eighth Matt Burton snapped an audacious clearance kick from his own 20 to inside the Warriors 20.

On the subsequent possession, the Warriors barely sent Burton's dangerous grubber-kick dead, but conceded a penalty, when Tuaupiki's dropout went into touch on the full. Skipper Stephen Crichton put his team ahead for the first time from the tee.

Although they were only two points up, that passage of play showed the Bulldogs had the gameplan and the personnel for the conditions.

Burton is known for his booming boot, especially his towering spiral bombs, and he tormented the Warriors with a kicking game they simply could not hope to emulate without Boyd or Martin.

Best player

Hard to sift through the debris to find a Warriors player that acquitted themselves with merit.

Even winger Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, who had previously been in redhot form, blotted his performance, when he spilled a high kick in his redzone and Crichton score a try from the subsequent possession.

Tuivasa-Sheck scored a late consolation try himself and still led his team with 155 running metres, but less than half his haul against the Dolphins.

Second-rower Demitric Vaimauga made 36 tackles and revelled in the extra workload, while Lussick managed 35, but there were plenty of tackles to make and plenty were missed. Front-rower Jackson Ford has been a tower of strength all season, but missed eight tackles by himself.

The Bulldogs made 46 tacklebreaks to 13, but perhaps the most telling stat of the game saw both teams completing 91 percent of their sets in the first half, despite the pouring rain. Bulldogs were 22/24, Warriors were just 11/12.

What the result means for the Warriors

After spending 14 weeks in the top four, with playoff home advantage on offer, they finally lost that benefit on Friday, when four-time defending champions Penrith Panthers won their ninth in a row.

Victory over the Bulldogs would have propelled the Warriors back to fourth, but now they risk being left in the dust by those above them.

"We wish we were winning at the moment, but there's a lot to build off and a lot of spirit in that group," Webster said. "We'll keep fighting."

Behind them, some of those in pursuit also suffered defeats that should help them stay in the playoff hunt.

Brisbane Broncos (sixth), Cronulla Sharks (seventh), the Dolphins (eighth) and Manly Sea Eagles (10th) all went down, with only ninth-placed Sydney Roosters making ground on the Warriors.

Still six points behind, Sydney's 50-point win over the Dolphins certainly boosted their points differential in the event of a countback.

Next up

St George-Illawarra Dragons have been in the doldrums all season and seemed well out of contention for the post-season, but in successive weeks, they have accounted for top-of-the-table Canberra Raiders and Cronulla.

They seem on an opposite trajectory to the Warriors, who needed a late Metcalf field goal and some desperate defence to hold the Dragons at bay 15-14 at Wollongong in May.

"We've got to get back to playing our best football and the rest will take care of itself," Webster offered. "We're confident we can get it together."

They face off at Go Media Stadium on Friday.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.