National pins re-election hopes on economy

Analysis: Saturday's National Party conference set out an early 2026 challenge to voters - stick with what we've got or risk it on who-knows-what.

It's a line National used successfully in 2014 (remember Eminem-esque?), but that was a different National, and a different looking government.

At roughly the same point in that electoral cycle, National was polling in the late forties.

National in 2025 is struggling to get past the early thirties.

Labour has emerged as the party New Zealanders think has the best handle on the cost of living, according to the Ipsos Issues Monitor.

Of course, there is a long way to go yet.

The prime minister knows this, and is counting on sunnier economic fortunes this time next year.

But to borrow a well-worn Christopher Luxon phrase, the cost of living is the barnacle that won't get off the boat, and Luxon spent his speech - and much of the week leading up to it - trying to convince people that National, not Labour, is the steady hand on the tiller amid choppy global waters.

The government is at pains to say it can't control global events, although it spent a lot of time criticising the previous government for blaming global events.

The Trump administration's increased tariffs landed like a lead balloon on Friday, and prompted some late additions to the conference's run sheet.

In his speech, Luxon acknowledged the tariffs, but said New Zealand can't just "batten down the hatch" and hope for the best.

Trade minister Todd McClay took some time out of his rurals session to say he's already spoken to his US trade counterpart, and dispatched top trade diplomat Vangelis Vitalis to Washington. McClay will follow in the coming weeks.

A cost of living election

Domestically, National is still blaming the previous government for the economic conditions it inherited, and pitching that it needs a second term to truly sort it out.

The party's putting a stake in the ground and saying next year's election will be all about the economy.

Last Monday's 10-minute sermon from the podium, which set out the steps National had taken to address the cost of living, was a harbinger of what was to come at the weekend.

Inside the cavernous National Air Force Museum, Luxon told media New Zealanders would have a "very simple choice" at the next election:

"Do you trust the guys that actually crashed the economy and have no plan, or do you trust the guys in the government that's actually inherited a mess and is sorting it out and is making progress before that election?"

Luxon did not mention the other "guys in the government" on Saturday.

That's not unusual. This was, after all, a National Party event, full of National Party stump speeches.

The party's deputy Nicola Willis, however, gave Luxon a shout-out for the "energy" it takes to keep Winston Peters and David Seymour under control.

While joking he was targeting 100 percent of the vote in 2026, Luxon said after his speech that it was natural to disagree with his coalition partners, but they were aligned on the things that mattered.

The mood in the room

National party supporters that RNZ spoke to were largely happy with how things were going, and how Luxon was keeping things in line.

"We are very co-ordinated, very co-ordinated. We respect each other's policies and respect each other's decisions," said one member.

"They're very aggressive people that he's in Parliament with, but he's handled it extremely well," said another.

"It's like you're the mother in the house, and you have to herd two cats, who do co-operate sometimes, and other times they've got other agendas. From a managerial point of view, I think he's doing excellently in the light of the type of political system we've got."

Some expressed wariness of what Peters would do next year, others sung from Luxon's songsheet that this was the maturity of MMP on display.

"It's taking some managing, but it's all good. It's what MMP is about."

"Everybody's looking at next year's election again, and obviously they want to get back in. So there's a bit of leverage, and nobody's got more experience at that than Winston."

They were also convinced the country was going in the right direction, and that Luxon was the right person to steer it there.

"We're starting to turn the corner. The last 18 months has been the clean-up job, and we're actually getting ready to turn the tank around now."

"It just takes time, and people have got to be patient. They're doing everything that they possibly can, it's just a timing issue. Everybody's impatient."

National's membership thinks the polls will firm in their favour as the public look more critically at the alternative.

A Labour Party bereft of policy, juggling the niche demands of the more extreme Greens and Te Pāti Māori.

International tourists to pay to visit DOC sites

Luxon wants the country to "say yes" to more. More mining, more infrastructure, more housing, more tourism, more growth.

Opening up more concessions on Department of Conservation land, and charging international visitors to visit some DOC sites is part of that "say yes" strategy.

Twenty to forty dollars is not a large sum to fork out for people who have paid thousands to come here, and it adds $62m to the conservation estate that New Zealanders won't have to pay for.

There are still some implementation issues to work through.

It remains to be seen whether New Zealanders will have to take a passport or bank statement to Cathedral Cove to get out of a fee.

It's a small change, and one the government did not campaign on, or put in its latest quarterly plan.

There will be more to come as parties start to differentiate themselves and sound the election battle drums.

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