Analysis: Tensions and timing test Luxon on first official China visit

Analysis - Luck was not on Christopher Luxon's side for his first official trip to China.

Even before the visit began, the prime minister was battling for control of the narrative, as a suite of former political leaders - including Helen Clark and Don Brash - accused the coalition of antagonising China through its embrace of the US.

A clearly irritated Luxon batted away the warning - "maybe listen to fewer former politicians" - but the commentary persisted.

In fact, the superpower struggle was given more prominence by events unfolding in the Middle East as Israel launched open warfare on Iran, with the US and China backing opposing sides.

No surprise New Zealanders at home showed more interest in US President Donald Trump's "will-he-won't-he" contemplations than in Luxon's Shanghai sales pitch.

Then came news of the Cook Islands diplomacy crisis right on the eve of Luxon's big sit-down with President Xi Jinping.

Luxon had to have been cursing the timing, as his pre-meeting media conference was consumed by questions about the government's decision to suspend funding to the Pacific nation after its controversial agreements with China earlier this year.

He tried valiantly to characterise New Zealand's issue as being solely with the Cook Islands government, but it was impossible to ignore China's contribution as one-half of the deals in question.

That was evidenced by a pointed response from China's Foreign Ministry: that its cooperation with the Cook Islands "should not be disrupted or restrained by any third party".

Was the trip a success?

Such comments were not repeated, however, in the brief public parts of Luxon's high-level meetings at the Great Hall of the People.

The leaders on both sides were direct in their opening remarks but not at all confrontational.

President Xi Jinping acknowledged "ups and downs" in the relationship while Luxon pointedly noted the importance of "stability in our region".

But both also stressed the value of their ties. Premier Li Qiang even welcomed the "candid" nature of the conversations.

Certainly, there was nothing to suggest China is contemplating economic retribution, as some have suggested.

Supporters of the government's approach will see that as proof its strategy is working.

Its critics will caution it means only that there is still time to change course.

To understand China's perspective, one can look to the state media for an indication.

On Thursday, state tabloid Global Times hosted a piece by Qin Sheng, associate professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Qin said the China-NZ relationship could provide an example of "healthy interaction" in a world of "rising geopolitical rivalry and pervasive uncertainty".

At the same time, he warned that the US was "actively wooing" New Zealand to join its "small circles aimed at containing China" including AUKUS pillar two.

"For New Zealand, it is important to see the broader picture and ensure that its choices align with the prevailing trend of history."

From a personal perspective, the PM would've been thrilled that Xi had been "impressed" by him in their first meeting at APEC last year.

Alas, that sentiment is unlikely to filter through to the NZ public in any meaningful way.

All travelling media noted the paltry audience interest in the stories filed as they landed on the afternoon of the public holiday Matariki.

More bad luck.

Broadly speaking, business leaders in the delegation were enthused and positive about the China visit, but there were some quiet grumblings.

Two particular gripes came up multiple times in conversations.

The trip's length - just two nights in Shanghai and one in Beijing - was considered too brief from a business perspective.

It was hard not to notice the extra empty seats on the 757 returning home with several delegates clearly deciding to stay on in Beijing a little longer.

Several businesspeople also questioned Luxon's strategy for luring back Chinese tourists and his characterisation of the issue as a "marketing challenge".

When speaking to reporters, Luxon repeatedly insisted the problem was that New Zealand lacked "share of mind" in China and simply needed more promotion.

The blame, he said, lay with Labour for being too slow to come out of Covid-19. Never mind that China itself had been slower.

Those spoken to by RNZ suggested the more pressing concern was cost - and pointed out the coalition had hiked visa fees and tripled the International Visitor Levy.

What next?

Luxon's focus will now shift to the NATO forum which is he due to attend in the Netherlands in the coming days.

In his final media conference in Beijing, Luxon made clear he considered his attendance there to be quite separate from his China mission.

But he must know the two are very much connected and will be viewed as such.

In recent comments, NATO chief Mark Rutte has grouped China together with Russia, Iran and North Korea, as effective foes of the West.

Asked about the remarks, Luxon said he had seen "no evidence" of those four powers actively working together against the West.

One wonders how that "difference of opinion" - as Luxon put it - will go down when the PM arrives at the Hague.

Just last week, China expert Jason Young told RNZ that one of New Zealand's biggest challenges over the next two decades would be navigating that tension between its Western security partners and its largest trading partner China.

There can be no relying on luck for that.

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