6 Jun 2025

'No upside and very considerable downside' in annoying China: Helen Clark and Don Brash warn

11:45 am on 6 June 2025
Helen Clark and Don Brash.

Helen Clark and Don Brash. Photo: RNZ

Two former prime ministers and an ex-governor of the Reserve Bank have put their names to a letter questioning the coalition government's foreign policy - in particular "positioning New Zealand alongside the United States as an adversary of China".

Helen Clark, Sir Sir Geoffrey Palmer and Dr Don Brash say they are "deeply concerned" about statements made by Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, and actions taken by the government, when it comes to our relationship with the two superpowers.

"Our country has for many years enjoyed a cordial relationship with both the United States and China. Both countries were comfortable with that in the past," they said.

"But more recently, the United States has described China not only as a competitor, but also as an adversary, and has been putting pressure on other countries to take sides."

They said while the US had made a valuable contribution to trade and development in the Pacific, and "good relations… must be maintained", they held concerns about initiatives such as AUKUS Pillar 2, which New Zealand is keeping an open mind about.

An update provided to ministers in February said Pillar 2 had the "potential to support New Zealand's national security, defence, and foreign policy settings in the Indo-Pacific" through technology sharing and development. China has warned New Zealand against joining it.

New Zealand did not consider Pillar 1, as it involved nuclear-powered submarines.

The group cited a number of decisions as potentially souring New Zealand's relationship with China, including:

They also cited Peters' recent criticism of the 2008 free-trade deal New Zealand made with China (signed during one of his former stints as foreign minister).

"It would not be surprising if China were to come to the conclusion that the special relationship which New Zealand has had with it since becoming the first developed country to have a free trade agreement with it in 2008 is no longer so valued by New Zealand.

"Yet China is already by far our largest export market, and is almost certain to become an even more important market as the country continues to develop. We see no upside and very considerable downside in the situation which has developed."

The group said while New Zealand shared more "political values" with the US, and a longer relationship, a "military relationship with the United States directed against China has many risks for New Zealand".

"That is especially true in a situation where the United States itself has recently become more ambivalent about its defence relationships with traditional partners."

They urged Luxon to "make it clear at the highest level that New Zealand retains its bipartisan commitment to its strategic partnership with China in the interests of a peaceful and prosperous region and world" when made it to Beijing, expected to be sometime this year.

Luxon first met Chinese President Xi Jinping at last year's APEC meeting. He was yet to visit China as prime minister.

The other signatories to the statement were former Speaker of the House Sir David Carter, former New Zealand Ambassador to China Carl Worker, and David Mahon, a New Zealand businessman resident in Beijing since 1984.

In response, a spokesperson for Peters told RNZ he saw "no value in indulging the tired arguments of various former politicians".

"The AUKUS II process was commenced by the Labour government in 2021. New Zealand has yet to be invited to join.

"The government stands by its independent foreign policy approach which has been transparent about its focus on advancing New Zealand's security and prosperity after the years of inaction by the previous administration."

Clark and Brash, once political foes, last year teamed up to criticise the government's foreign policy, in paticular its refusal to rule out joining AUKUS Pillar 2.

Labour has promised it would not sign New Zealand up to the US-UK-Australia defence agreement.

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