19 Feb 2024

1News-Verian political poll: Labour gains slightly, Chris Hipkins plummets

6:05 pm on 19 February 2024
Labour Leader Chris Hipkins

Chris Hipkins Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver

The latest 1News-Verian poll has ACT and NZ First losing one seat each, and Labour gaining one compared to the election result - but opposition leader Chris Hipkins personally faces a 10-point drop.

The first political survey unveiled by the polling agency since just before the election in October, it saw small movements for most of the parties compared to the final election result.

  • National: 38 percent (48 seats), down slightly compared to 38.8 percent at the election
  • Labour: 28 percent (35 seats), up slightly (26.9 percent at election)
  • Greens: 12 percent (15 seats), up slightly (11.6 percent at election)
  • ACT: 8 percent (10 seats), down slightly (8.6 percent at election)
  • NZ First: 6 percent (7 seats) down slightly (6.08 percent at election)
  • Te Pāti Māori: 4 percent (6 seats), up slightly (3.08 percent at election)
  • The Opportunities Party: No seats (2 percent, steady)

The seat calculation assumes Te Pāti Māori hold their six electorate seats.

The result would give Labour one extra seat compared to the election result, with National's coalition partners ACT and NZ First losing one seat each.

However, the coalition together would still have 65 seats between them - easily enough to meet the 61 seats required for government.

While Hipkins may be celebrating a slight lift for his party, the dramatic 10-point drop for him on the preferred prime minister measure will be sobering.

Preferred prime minister (results compared to previous survey, taken 7-10 October):

  • Christopher Luxon: 25 percent - steady
  • Chris Hipkins: 15 percent - down 10 points
  • Winston Peters: 6 percent, up 1 point
  • David Seymour: 4 percent, steady
  • Chlöe Swarbrick: 4 percent, up 2 points
  • Jacinda Ardern: 2 percent, up 1 point
  • Nicola Willis: 1 percent, up 1 point
  • James Shaw: 1 percent, down 1 point
  • Marama Davidson 1 percent, down 1 point

The poll surveyed about 1000 eligible voters and was weighted for demographics, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.

Polls are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.

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