11 Oct 2023

1News-Verian poll shows left bloc closing in on the right

6:09 pm on 11 October 2023
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters speaks at a public meeting at Napier Sailing Club in Napier on 29 September 2023.

Winston Peters Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

The left bloc has gained three points with the right bloc steady - but National, ACT and NZ First could still form a government, the 1News-Verian poll suggests.

National and ACT would have 58 seats between them, three shy of the 61 required to form a government - and would need Winston Peters to agree to a deal - on these numbers.

  • National: 37 percent, up 1 point (47 seats)
  • Labour: 28 percent, up 2 points (35 seats)
  • Greens: 14 percent, up 1 point (17 seats)
  • ACT: 9 percent, down 1 point (11 seats)
  • NZ First: 6 percent, steady (8 seats)
  • Te Pāti Māori: 2 percent, steady (2 seats)

Parties likely to be outside of Parliament but registering 1 percent or more included NZ Loyal, Freedoms NZ, NewZeal, and DemocracyNZ - all at 1 percent and steady apart from Matt King's DemocracyNZ which newly showed up in the numbers with a 1 point rise.

The number of undecided voters dropped 1 percentage point, to 9 percent of overall voters, from the previous 1News-Verian poll.

Preferred prime minister numbers saw little movement from the previous week, with National's Christopher Luxon dropping one point and Labour's Chris Hipkins staying steady - both at 25 percent.

Preferred prime minister:

  • Christopher Luxon: 25 percent - down 1 point
  • Chris Hipkins: 25 percent - steady
  • Winston Peters: 5 percent, up 1 point
  • David Seymour: 4 percent, up 1 point
  • Chlöe Swarbrick: 2 percent, steady
  • James Shaw: 2 percent, steady
  • Jacinda Ardern, 1 percent, up 1 point

The poll surveyed about 1000 eligible voters and was weighted for demographics, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. It was conducted between 7 and 10 October.

Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.

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