The report called for New Zealand to expand aged-care capacity. Photo: 123RF
A new report calls for urgent action to prepare infrastructure, housing, and healthcare for the country's rapidly ageing population.
The report - by the Helen Clark Foundation and its partner, engineering and infrastructure consultants WSP - said the over-65 population was projected to grow from 870,000 in 2024 to as many as 2.5 million by 2078.
The report called for New Zealand to expand aged-care capacity, invest in accessible and affordable public and private housing, and ensure the health system was equipped for the growing demand.
Author and WSP fellow Kali Mercier said population ageing was one of the country's most significant challenges.
"Ageing shouldn't be seen as a crisis, but as a challenge to our systems - and with smart, joined-up planning, it's a challenge we can absolutely meet," she said. "By acting early, and basing decisions on clear evidence and future needs, we have a real opportunity to build stronger, more inclusive communities and ensure our services are ready to support everyone well into the future.
"We need to be investing money in helping aged-care providers - a lot of them are charities actually - to help them invest in new capacities, because at the moment, they're not being paid sufficiently to even maintain facilities a lot of the time, let alone invest in new capacity."
The report said a national strategy was needed that brought together central and local government, backed by better data and long-term planning.
"We're not doing regular population projections at the local and regional level. We also need a national population plan - we're not thinking about how many people we actually want to have or expect to have in the country in 20 years' time.
"If we knew that, we could much better plan for how much infrastructure we need."
Key report findings
Housing insecurity: Home ownership among over-65s is falling sharply, with projections showing just 50 percent of this group owning homes by 2040.
Aged-care shortfalls: New Zealand faces a projected shortfall of 12,000 aged-care beds by 2032. Waiting time for admission to aged-care residential facilities can vary from 82 days in the Manawatū region to 219 days on the West Coast.
Health system strain: The report warns hospital infrastructure is outdated and overstretched, with demand about to surge, especially as per-person healthcare spending for those aged 85+ is 16 times higher than for 40-year-olds.
Transport and urban-design gaps: The report says heavy reliance on private vehicles risks isolating older people. It says investing in walkable communities, accessible public transport and age-friendly design is essential for quality of life among older people, and also delivers public-health benefits across generations, and helps contain long-term infrastructure costs by keeping demand more compact and efficient.
Regional disparities: Areas like Tasman, Nelson and Marlborough are heading toward 'hyper-ageing', with more than 30 percent of residents expected to be 65+ by 2048.
'Holding on by its fingertips'
Aged Care Association chief executive Tracey Martin said the challenge of meeting the needs of the ageing population had been known for some time.
"The foundation's report is re-articulating that the window is closing rapidly for us to take the actions that are needed," she said. "We are already seeing some of what the future looks like for particular communities.
"If you think about Wairoa, Reefton, the West Coast, the provision of residential care is holding on by its fingertips.
"We can see what the future looks like, if we don't take some really major decisions about how we're going to deliver the services, how we're going to integrate them within home care provision, how we're going to release hospitals to do the acute services they need to do through our members providing more respite and recovery and return home, along with the dementia care, psychogeriatric care and hospital level care."
Martin said the association had provided solutions to the government.
"For last 18 months, one of the things we've been raising the profile of is working with in-home community providers and residential care providers to create a continuum of living, rather than a continuum of care that will then take the weight off our acute hospital system.
"We've seen movement in that the government and government agencies particularly over this year have become more open to those conversations."
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