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New Covid infections yesterday plunged from Saturday's record tally but one epidemiologist believes the daily case numbers may not reflect the true extent of community spread.
A Covid-19 testing station in Stratford. Photo: RNZ / Jimmy Ellingham
There were 208 new cases reported in the community on Sunday, down markedly on Saturday's record 243 infections, which was the highest daily total since the pandemic reached New Zealand nearly two years ago.
Yesterday's cases were across Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Lakes, Bay of Plenty, Hawke's Bay, Wellington, Nelson Marlborough and South Canterbury.
One of the new infections in Marlborough was staying at the Tahuna Beach Holiday Park but how the person caught the virus is currently a mystery.
Auckland remains the epicentre of the Omicron outbreak, with more than half of yesterday's new cases in the region.
More than 2000 people are self-isolating at home, including 861 cases.
But epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker believes a number could be added on top of the daily case numbers to reflect the level of infection still to be detected as symptoms vary for each person.
"You have got a lot of infected people who haven't developed illness yet and people who have very mild symptoms."
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Baker said New Zealand's current average is lower than what was previously seen overseas, as the spread was currently slowing down due to the current traffic light setting.
"That approach is still helping to limit transmission, that's why it's so important for people to come forward.
"But we know in roughly two weeks' time we will be getting to the stage of moving to the next stage of the response."
Baker said he focuses on the moving average to "smooth out the sawtooth" of daily case numbers.
"It just reminds us yet again not to put too much weight on a single day but instead look at the trend."
Looking at the current moving average, Baker believed cases could reach 300 in the next four or five days. According to his calculations, New Zealand has a moving average of about 167 cases a day.
"In four or five days we would be going up to 300 plus and in two weeks we might be up to 1000 a day.
"None of us likes to predict this future but once you are on the curve it's hard to imagine it changing very much for some time," he said.
As cases were predicted to rise, Baker said those most vulnerable to Covid-19 should start thinking about limiting social interactions.
Even with vaccinations and booster shots, Baker said the elderly with underlying health issues can still leave them vulnerable. But he said the second most vulnerable group is the unvaccinated.
"The other groups is of course the unvaccinated, who will be very vulnerable. And the difference now which didn't apply before is that it will be very wild exposure to this virus across the country."
Baker said over half of the country may get infected, meaning New Zealanders will know someone in their life or have been in contact with people who have had the virus.
Yesterday a dozen people required hospital care across Auckland, Waikato, Rotorua and Christchurch. One person was in an intensive care unit in Rotorua.
While case numbers are soaring, so too are the number of people receiving their booster shots.
There were 48,947 booster doses administered on Saturday, and nearly 5000 paediatric doses were given out.
"With Omicron in New Zealand, one of the best things you can do is get your booster as soon as it is due," the Ministry of Health said yesterday.
Across the country there were 16,873 tests carried out in the last 24 hours - almost 8000 in Auckland.
