New Zealand should not take in more travellers from high risk countries and should consider closing some of its managed isolation facilities, a leading epidemiologist says.
Professor Michael Baker believes it is the right time to re-open the border because we can be more confident about how we manage Covid-19 outbreaks. Photo: University of Otago, Wellington / Luke Pilkinton-Ching
Professor Michael Baker who supports the start of a trans-Tasman bubble said once Australians were able to travel to this country without having to go into managed isolation there would be some "potential unintended adverse effects".
The main one, he told Morning Report, was that once the bubble is operating, and Australian travellers did not need to got into managed isolation, 40 percent of places within the MIQ system would then be available to travellers from 'red zone' countries with high case numbers, increasing the risk of border failures and outbreaks.
He said one option was to reduce MIQ capacity by 40 percent.
"We're still taking the same number of people from the red zone countries as we are now and our level of risk would not increase if we did that. And actually we could obviously save some resources - perhaps close some of the MIQ facilities in Auckland where the consequences of an outbreak are much worse.
"I think this is a time when we do need to think in a very strategic way how to manage risk for New Zealand for the next few months."
Opening the borders in a limited way was still "a calculated risk", however, the world needed more successful collaborations between countries. Around 20 percent of the world is protected with the Covid-19 elimination strategy, thanks mostly to the success of the Asia Pacific region, he said.
"I think there is the hope of progressive elimination and even the potential for global eradication."
It would be a huge upside globally if New Zealand, Australia and Pacific countries could set an example for operating a safe travel model.
"I think again we can be world leaders on this."
Professor Baker believes it is the right time to re-open the border to Australians, because the country could have a lot more confidence in how we manage Covid-19 with public health measures, including identifying outbreaks while they were still small and controlling them. Another plus was that vaccines for border workers were being rolled out in both countries.
"We've got a lot more tools now and understanding."
Photo: Supplied / Ministry of Health
Once an outbreak moved beyond border workers or MIQ guests, and there was transmission in the community or an outbreak became hard to manage, then both countries will be looking at immediate border closures, Baker said.
"On both sides of the Tasman, at a state level over there, or at a country level here, you're going to close the borders I think at this stage."
He agreed that trans-Tasman travellers needed to be aware they would need to be able to support themselves in the event of a closure and if they couldn't return on their intended date.
Professor Baker said New Zealand needed to be cautious about bringing in Singapore which would add another layer of complexity.
It would be preferable to have the PacIfic model working well before Asian countries were added.
New Zealand needed to "think creatively" on its vaccine strategy to achieve the greatest protection and one option would be to vaccinate everyone who was going overseas short-term to countries with a high number of cases.
The latest Ministry of Health figures which showed that only 63 percent of people were receiving their test results within 24 hours showed there was room for improvement, Professor Baker said. The ministry's goal is 80 percent.
He said a very high numbers of tests put pressure on the system, however the number one message remained that if people had cold or flu symptoms they must isolate, get advice from Healthline and get tested as quickly as possible.
