Intense weather events happening more often is a risk facing Wairoa authorities over the next decade.
Wairoa District Council considers climate change to be one of the key risks it will face over the next decade. Photo: LDR / Alice Angeloni
The effects of climate change, along with changing demographics, government-led water reform and the impacts of Covid-19 are "key issues" that need to be considered in the 2021-31 long term plan, a Wairoa District Council report says.
These issues have arisen since 2018, as the council reviews its "assumptions and risks" for the next 10 years.
A report put to the council's finance, audit and risk committee said climate change would have an impact on the district and affect the council's ability to deliver services.
Its planning includes scenarios of more frequent and intense weather events that pose increased risk or damage to council infrastructure.
"There will be increased risk to coastal roads and infrastructure from coastal erosion and inundation, increased storminess and sea-level rise."
Flooding and increased temperatures were predicted to affect the district's roading network, while droughts were likely to result in water shortages, increased demand for irrigation and increased risk of fires.
This was expected to have an impact on the provision of safe drinking water and the disposal of wastewater and stormwater.
It notes changes since the 2018-28 long term plan, including the national climate change declaration in December and a regional climate emergency by Hawke's Bay Regional Council in June 2019.
Changing demographics, government-led water reform and the impacts of Covid-19 are also being considered. Photo: LDR / Alice Angeloni
Extra pressure on infrastructure brought about by mainly retirees moving to Mahia is another "risk" facing the council.
The population and number of households in the district was expected to increase "moderately" over the next decade.
"Growth in the district is expected to be in Mahia, with an increase in retirees to the area or those returning home," it said.
The report listed two risks associated with population change.
Either population change is going to be higher than predicted, putting increased pressure on the council to provide infrastructure and services, or the population could decline, increasing the burden on ratepayers.
The population of the district aged 65 and over was also expected to increase, while declines were expected in the number of two-parent households and population aged 40 to 64.
The number of single-person households was expected to rise.
The risk this posed was a decline in the affordability and ability to pay that came with more households on fixed incomes and some potentially lower household incomes, the report said.
The report was informed by social, economic, environmental and cultural issues on a national, regional and local level, and described the impact of government-led water reform Three Waters.
In July 2020, the government launched the Three Waters Reform Programme - a three-year project to reform local government service delivery of drinking water, stormwater and wastewater.
It said the council planned to deliver Three Waters during this LTP, but noted the water reforms created a "high degree of uncertainty" on the future ownership and delivery of services.
Government funding would enable improvements in water service delivery, support economic recovery from Covid-19 and progress reform, but additional funding would be subject to government decision-making and reliant on the council demonstrating progress.
It said there was a "potential for change" in regards to financial and infrastructure planning in the three waters space.
The cost of capital works is also considered with the risk being that some project costs are greater than the estimates, resulting in increased debt levels.
"Council has a high level of confidence regarding the costs of capital projects in the short term, but less certainty in the longer term due to possible economic fluctuations, growth patterns, consent conditions...
"The potential effects of this uncertainty on the financial statements would be difficult to estimate, but may lead to a number of projects being deferred, cancelled or rescoped."
For example, between 2019 and 2021 an upgrade to the Mahanga water supply infrastructure was paused and subject to two referendums because of cost escalations making the project "unaffordable".
Inflation, bank funding, rates, consent renewals, governance and council policy were other factors considered in the report.
The committee was recommended to adopt the report to include in the long term plan.
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