Geonet forecast downscales large quake risk

4:34 pm on 19 December 2017

Scientists at GeoNet have released their latest earthquake forecast.

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Land damage after the Kaikōura earthquake. Photo: Supplied / GNS Science

It shows the chance of a magnitude seven or above tremor in central New Zealand has decreased substantially on a year ago.

In December 2016 the chance of a quake that size within the next year was 20 percent or greater.

For the year ahead, that's fallen to six percent.

While the likelihood of a quake similar in size to the 2016 Kaikōura event has reduced, the chance of it happening is still greater now than before that quake.

The forecast is based on studies of the aftershocks that followed the Kaikōura quake, and computer models.

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