Photo: 123RF
The live animal export industry is still hopeful the practice will resume - despite not getting any material updates from the government since the middle of last year.
New Zealand used to export live cattle to China via sea to help it build its own dairy herd - but Labour banned the practice in 2023 due to animal welfare concerns.
ACT campaigned during the last election to reinstate live exports by sea and Cabinet has been working on the legislation ever since.
But Livestock Exports NZ chief executive Glen Neal said things have gone quiet.
"The uncertainty is not helpful for farmers in terms of planning, they've got to make decisions on a regular basis about the future of their farming operations.
"The non appearance of legislation to restore the trade is something that presents fewer options for farmers."
The government has said it would only resume live exports by sea with a new gold standard for animal welfare but Labour has doubled down and said if it was elected it would enforce the ban.
With uncertainty, would the industry invest in gold standard ships for export? Neal thinks so.
"We think there is sufficient demand for protein in South East Asia - demand is growing all the time, we send really high value animals which are highly prized there.
"We've had a very successful trade with China for 20 years, we've sent hundreds of thousands of animals up there at a time when dairy demand was growing.
"So now we are looking at countries like Indonesia and others that want to have their own dairy production boosted by some great New Zealand bovine genetics."
Neal said even if legislation is passed to reinstate exports, the industry needs a good six to 12 months to prepare - as decisions need to made at breeding time.
It's clear the industry is frustrated by the lack of progress and there's a lot of money at stake - in 2024 it spent $1 million on a lobbying campaign to persuade the government to restart the trade.
Associate Minister of Agriculture Andrew Hoggard. Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii
Associate Minister of Agriculture Andrew Hoggard acknowledged the development of the legislation had taken longer than planned.
"The government has always been clear that when the trade returned, it would be with the highest animal welfare standards, and we are still discussing what that looks like as a government.
"I know the livestock sector will be looking for certainty and as soon as I have something to announce, I'll let them know."
While the industry waits for answers - those who support the ban believe National could back away support and the ban will stay in place.
Retired veterinarian John Hellström - who was chair of the National Animal Welfare Advisory Committee for seven years - started a parliamentary petition to keep the ban in place.
It gained over 57,000 signatures and was presented to parliament in 2024.
"It's been over 18 months since we put the petition in and there's been very slow progress by both cabinet committees that have been looking at it, it's frustrating.
"But on the other hand, I guess it also feels like there is not strong support in government to get this thing through at the moment."
He said lots of farmers supported the ban so he was not sure National would back reinstating live exports by sea - especially in an election year.
"If you asked me six months ago I would have said the odds of the ban being over turned would be 70 to 30 and now I think it's the other way around.
"I'm reasonably confident now that the ban will be sustained."
Hellstrom said since the ban was enforced, demand for live cattle in China had dwindled while other niche markets New Zealand might target were looking for different kinds of cattle than what we produce.
He said he looked forward to presenting his view before select committee - but he wasn't sure when that would be.
"Minister Hoggard is committed to a full consultation process before the legislation goes through, so I'm assuming that he will honour that agreement."
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