10 Mar 2022

Farmer confidence down despite high commodity prices

8:31 am on 10 March 2022

Farmer confidence is the lowest it's been since 2009 a new survey has found.

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File photo. Photo: RNZ / Carol Stiles

The Federated Farmers survey of nearly a thousand farmers in January found just under 8 percent considered the current economic conditions to be good, a 10 percent decline from the previous survey six months ago.

Meanwhile more than 60 percent of farmers expected general economic conditions to worsen over the next year.

Federated Farmers president Andrew Hoggard said farmer confidence was the lowest its been since the group started the twice a year surveys in 2009.

The results come despite record high commodity prices.

"We're getting strong returns on meat and dairy right now thanks to high global demand and food security concerns but clearly farmers are seeing a lot of that revenue going right back out again with higher fuel and fertilizer prices, rising labour costs, and the hot inflation that is affecting every other New Zealander.

"The results are even more disturbing when you consider farmers were answering the survey before the surge of Omicron cases in New Zealand and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, both of which will weigh on economic growth."

Hoggard said he was surprised by the results.

"There's so many warning signals out there in the economy, the fact that we're still doing well, prices wise I thought confidence would have been higher but I think its symptomatic of what's happening in the world at the moment."

The survey also found just over 60 percent of farmers are making a profit but 11 percent expect their profitability to decline in the year ahead.

"Fifty-two percent of respondents expect their spending to increase over the next 12 months up from 32 percent six months ago, but this will be due to higher expected input costs rather than farmers feeling confident to spend and invest," Hoggard said.

Asked to list their greatest concerns, 18.7 percent chose climate change policy at the emissions trading scheme, 12 percent said regulation and compliance costs and nearly 10 percent said cited fresh water policy.

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