6 Sep 2021

Fall in dairy and forestry demand hits commodity prices

5:43 pm on 6 September 2021

Weakening demand for dairy and forestry exports saw commodity prices fall in August.

Wooden logs stored at port of Picton, New Zealand.

Photo: 123RF

The ANZ Bank's World Commodity Price Index dropped 1.6 percent last month, as dairy and wood products retreat from the extreme highs these hit earlier this year.

The dairy sub index fell 4 percent month on month, with whole milk powder, a key driver of farmer's returns, falling 6.5 percent.

Forestry prices fell sharply, down 6.6 percent in August, as high overseas demand for logs started to ease.

"Dairy and forestry led the index down, offsetting stronger prices from other sectors," ANZ agri economist Susan Kilsby said.

Meat and fibre prices rose nearly 3 percent in August and were back to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, coarse wool prices hit their highest level in over two years, with prices expected to remain firm due to strong interest in natural fibres from overseas buyers.

Aluminium was the stand-out commodity for the month, with prices rising 4 percent over August to hit a 10-year high.

The world's largest producer of aluminium, China, had been forced to cut production due to electricity shortages and concerns about emissions, Kilsby said.

"Aluminum demand is expected to remain strong as the world looks to decarbonise, as this metal can be used to transmit power, as can copper," she said.

Global shipping costs are still rising, with the Baltic Dry Index, which provides a benchmark for the price of moving raw materials by sea, reaching its highest level in over a decade.

"The cost of shipping is spiraling higher with additional costs being borne mainly by the consumer," Kilsby said.

"Export margins are also being squeezed."

A shortage of refrigerated shipping containers was creating a logistical headache for exporters, she said.

"Meanwhile our wharves are being clogged up with standard containers as shipping lines are not relocating sufficient containers as they concentrate on higher-value freight," she said.

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