10 Nov 2015

Truckometer reflects recent rebound in business confidence

4:33 pm on 10 November 2015

The ANZ Bank's latest economic survey - the truckometer - reflects the recent rebound in business confidence and other economic indicators.

The survey measures heavy and light truck movements and uses that as an indication of economic activity and growth.

The heavy traffic index rose 0.9 percent in October, while the light traffic Index, which leads economic growth by six months, hardly changed from September's 2.6 percent surge, dipping just 0.3 percent.

ANZ senior economist Sharon Zollner said the economy may well be in for a better second half of the year and early 2016, if the recent strength could be sustained.

"Indeed, this is our forecast, with the non-dairy agriculture, construction, housing, services and tourist sectors performing particularly well. The economy appears to be back on the ascent and refuses to roll over," she said.

"The main risks to this soft landing scenario are not under New Zealand's control: the El Niño drought threat, and the global outlook. We are wary of the recent downturn in global dairy prices, which has the potential to dampen spirits and activity again. But for now at least, the foot seems to have come off the brake."