PM Christopher Luxon shrugs off critics as he heads to China

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is flying to China this morning, pledging to continue a "considered" course amid "choppier waters" worldwide - even as former political leaders call for a rethink.

The three-day trip to Shanghai and Beijing comes at what Luxon describes as a "complex" but "mature" stage in the bilateral relationship, as well as a fraught time in international affairs with Israel and Iran in open warfare.

"It's a pretty volatile time," Luxon told RNZ. "It's really important, from a New Zealand point of view, that we navigate choppier waters... [to get] to a good place."

The visit to China is Luxon's first since he took office in November 2023.

Earlier this month, a line-up of ex-politicians - including Helen Clark, Sir Geoffrey Palmer, Sir David Carter and Don Brash - published an open letter urging Luxon to adopt a less "adversarial stance" towards China.

But China expert Professor Anne-Marie Brady told RNZ the letter's authors were overlooking China's "direct threat to NZ" and instead endorsed the coalition's "careful" approach of looking for common ground while also "facing up to differences".

In a one-on-one sitdown with RNZ before departure, Luxon downplayed any tensions and said he would use the trip as one would expect: to advance New Zealand's best interests.

"It's a very calm, considered, thoughtful, consistent, predictable relationship," he told RNZ. "Where we have differences, we raise them publicly and privately, consistently and predictably."

The comments are very much in line with those of his prime ministerial predecessors Chris Hipkins and Dame Jacinda Ardern.

Travelling with Luxon aboard the Defence Force's Boeing 757 are a delegation of 28 business leaders, media, and an award-winning kapa haka group.

The whirlwind visit includes a packed schedule of business events and high-level talks with China's top three leaders: President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, and Zhao Leji, chairman of the National People's Congress standing committee.

The 'tender' state of the relationship

Asked to assess the current bilateral relationship, Brady - a professor of political science at the University of Canterbury - called it "rather tender".

Jason Young - from the Contemporary China Research Centre - said ties were "more strained" than in the past, while former Prime Minister Helen Clark warned the "special relationship" was in jeopardy.

Luxon's visit comes more than 18 months into his term, making China the 22nd country he's visited. That's longer than it took Ardern to visit, a wait which, at the time, had National publicly questioning whether the relationship was in trouble.

In his interview with RNZ, Luxon waved away the long wait, pointing out he sat down with Premier Li in Wellington a year ago and President Xi on the sidelines of APEC in Peru in November.

But the coalition has also conducted just four ministerial visits to China so far, compared to at least seven over the first half of Labour's 2017 term and 15 over the first half of National's 2014 term.

Brady traces the shift in approach back to the 2017 Labour-NZ First coalition amid concerns about foreign interference: "It's a relationship that has changed a lot."

Since 2018, New Zealand's spy agencies have repeatedly called out China for malicious activity including cyber-attacks and espionage. The 2023 MFAT Strategic Assessment highlighted "a more assertive China" and named a potential "shift in the strategic balance in the Pacific" as a serious concern for both the region and New Zealand's own security.

In just the past week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters referenced "external pushes in our region to coerce, cajole and constrain" in a speech at the Pacific-France summit.

And in April, Defence Minister Judith Collins cited China's more aggressive actions when justifying plans to double military spending as a share of GDP.

The accompanying Defence Capability Plan flagged the "the rapid and non-transparent growth of China's military capability".

In turn, China's embassy in NZ has frequently pushed back in public comments, denying all wrongdoing and criticising government statements and actions.

Brady told RNZ the government was steering "a careful course between the great powers" while promoting the rules-based international order.

"It's a protective and an independent approach to dealing with China, one that recognises our interests, whether they're economic or strategic," she said.

"That's the only approach to apply in dealing with China at the moment."

Ex-politicians urge Luxon to change course

But a high-powered line-up of former politicians disagrees, urging Luxon to "make it clear at the highest level that New Zealand retains its bipartisan commitment to its strategic partnership with China".

In an open letter, Clark and others warned that needless antagonism risked serious fallout with the country's largest trading partner: "We see no upside and very considerable downside in the situation which has developed."

They point to the government's alignment with US-led groupings, closer defence ties with the Philippines, and the authorisation for a naval vessel to sail through the Taiwan Strait.

Sir David Carter, a former National minister and Speaker, told RNZ the coalition risked souring relations with China which could carry serious economic consequences.

He pointed to Australia, where China imposed trade restrictions after diplomatic tensions.

"That would be very detrimental to New Zealand agriculture," he said.

Sir David, also a patron of the NZ China Friendship Society, said he worried the government was undervaluing the relationship and described the visit as long overdue.

"The Chinese expect to be respected for their significance to New Zealand," he told RNZ.

"I would have liked to have seen the prime minister make a trip to Beijing well before now... the sooner he's up there, the better."

Brady, however, rejected the arguments made in the open letter.

"The authors of this letter are criticising the response without looking at the crisis," she told RNZ.

"China is seeking to change the regional and global strategic order and that is a direct threat to New Zealand, as identified by successive governments."

Brady pointed to the evidence of serious foreign interference, militarisation in the Pacific, recent combat drills in the Tasman Sea, aggression in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, and ongoing human rights abuses.

Luxon also gave the criticisms short shrift: "Mate, I'll just say... you want to listen a little less to former politicians - maybe [listen to] the ones that are in the arena right now."

He said he was "not at all" concerned about potential relationship breakdown and economic retribution.

"That's a bit simplistic... this is a mature relationship. It's multi-dimensional. We make sure that we have huge areas of cooperation."

In response to the open letter, Peters issued a short statement, labelling the authors' arguments "tired".

"We have an independent foreign policy," he said. "With all countries, we expect them to respect that, and our right to differ. A decent relationship is one where people can and parties can disagree while continuing on their engagement."

Where to expect progress?

Speaking to RNZ, former diplomat and NZ China Council chair John McKinnon, who is travelling with the delegation, declined to comment directly on the open letter, except to say a "diversity of opinions" was to be expected.

"It's a good relationship. It works well in terms of the substantial way in which we export to China, in which China contributes to our economy," he said.

"At the same time, there are things that China does... that people here don't like. And so there is that edge as well.

"The way in which this country has managed its relations with China over the years has always been to say: 'well, this is a great place, but we need to be able to talk about things which divide us'."

McKinnon said there were plenty of areas still for growth - notably around education and tourism.

"I would imagine that will be part of the promotional element of the visit," he said.

"There are many areas where you could see potential for cooperation... climate change, food sustainability, scientific cooperation."

On the eve of the trip, the coalition announced a visa waiver trial for Chinese passport holders visiting from Australia. But complete visa-free travel for tourists - like what China offers New Zealand travellers - is highly unlikely given concerns from officials.

Luxon cited a "tremendous amount" of opportunity for New Zealand to deepen trade with China and to improve awareness.

"We're bringing some of our CEOs of our largest food and beverage firms, but also tourism and education sector representatives as well.

"It's a chance for us to showcase and build awareness of those sectors back in the Chinese economy."

Asked whether it was wise for New Zealand to keep growing trade with its already largest trading partner, Luxon told RNZ he wanted to do business with as many countries as possible.

"There's 500 million people sitting in the middle class. They want premium food and beverage products. A lot of our New Zealand products are premium in nature and targeted to these niche segments. We want to continue to grow that."

Luxon will spend two nights in Shanghai and one night in Beijing before flying on to Europe to attend the annual NATO summit.

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