French President Macron calls New Caledonia's politicians back to the table

French President Emmanuel Macron has called New Caledonia's politicians back to the negotiating table in Paris on 16 January 2026.

The Presidential invite also implies that a de facto popular referendum, scheduled to take place on 15 March next year, is now cancelled.

The "anticipated consultation" was designed, according to French Minister for Overseas Naïma Moutchou, to "give (New Caledonia's) people their voice back" in the process initiated in July 2025, in the form of a text since dubbed the "Bougival" accord project.

The deal followed ten days of intense negotiations held in the small town west of Paris.

Originally signed by all of New Caledonia's political parties, it intended to pave the way for the creation of a "State of New Caledonia" within France and its correlated "New Caledonian nationality", as well as the gradual transfer of more powers from France to its Pacific territory.

However, a few days later, the FLNKS (Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front), one of the main components in the pro-independence camp, denounced the text, saying it rejected it in block because it did not respond to its claims of short-term full sovereignty.

The other parties, both pro-independence and pro-France (those who wish New Caledonia to remain part of France), resolved to honour their signatures at the bottom of the document and to continue defending it and advocating for it with their respective supporters.

However, the "moderate" pro-independence parties, including PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) and UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia) who had split from the FLNKS citing profound differences, later voiced some reservations and wished for more clarifications and possible amendments on the text.

This regarded, for instance, questions as to how the envisaged transfers of powers would legally materialise.

Bougival process in limbo

As part of the implementation of the text, it was also envisaged to launch a constitutional amendment process and a parliamentary endorsement of a de facto constitution for New Caledonia.

On 8 December, New Caledonia's local parliament, the Congress, was asked to vote on the "anticipated consultation" based on the whole text as gazetted early September 2025, without including the promised possible modifications.

On paper, the final outcome was that the Congress endorsed the principle of this de facto referendum, but with a very narrow majority of 19 in favour.

The rest of the votes was also significant, revealing a deeply fragmented House: 19 abstentions (mostly the moderate pro-independence and pro-France parties) and 14 against (from the FLNKS-Union Calédonienne caucus).

This was one of the determining factors that led Paris to drop the whole idea.

The Congress vote was even more significant that it was supposed to serve as a guideline for the French parliament to take a vote on the same matter.

It was later revealed that the decision to drop the consultation idea was made at a meeting between Moutchou, and the speakers of both Houses, Gérard Larcher (Senate) and Yaël Braun-Pivet (National Assembly).

Another factor was that at the national level, MPs in both Houses in Paris were largely divided on the matter and that without a clear majority, the text was unlikely to pass.

A significant setback came earlier this month from the Socialists parliamentary caucus, indicating they would not support the government "consultation" project on this matter.

They said they would prefer a return to a "dialogue-based approach and consensual build-up with all concerned political forces".

Indignant pro-France camp

Since the move to drop the referendum was leaked in national daily Le Monde, pro-France MP for New Caledonia Nicolas Metzdorf has expressed indignation in several local media in New Caledonia.

"When I read this (in the daily), I picked up my phone and called (Moutchou)". She told me she, Larcher and Braun-Pivet had concluded there was no majority in Parliament to pass this bill that was supposed to organise the consultation", an irate Metzdorf told Radio Rythme Bleu.

"Because, you know, they were scared of fresh violence in New Caledonia because of a possible boycott from FLNKS".

New Caledonia was engulfed in grave civil unrest in May 2024, following a series of protests staged by a "Field Actions Coordinating Cell" (CCAT) set up a few months earlier by Union Calédonienne (UC), the main remaining component of FLNKS.

The following riots, burning and looting led to the death of 14 people, over €2 billion in material damage, thousands of jobless and a drop of 13.5 percent in the French territory's GDP.

A bitter Metzdorf said even though he was in favour of going ahead with the process in Parliament, he was apparently not supported by neither Moutchou nor Macron.

"I think everyone is paralyzed with fear", he said.

He deplored that "violence now pays in the face of a weak France".

"But I want to say it right now. If this new meeting (convened by Macron) wants to take further than Bougival, it will be no."

He said earlier this year, before Bougival, his pro-France political camp had already rejected a previous proposal of New Caledonia as an associated State of France precisely because it would lead to independence.

"We did this once and we will reject all the same any form of independence association a second time".

"We will vote against, including in Parliament and there will be no agreement at all, until 2027" (the date of France's next Presidential elections).

Rendez-vous on 16 January 2026?

Metzdorf said he had already relayed his stance not only with Moutchou, but also with high officials at the President's Elysée office.

In his letter this week, Macron wrote that the 16 January 2026 session came in the footsteps of the July 2025 talks that led to the Bougival text.

Macron said the intent was to "pursue dialogue with every partner" in the form of a "progress report" aiming at "opening new political prospects" so as to allow the French government to then continue the discussions".

In a letter sent to Macron on Wednesday, Metzdorf and other like-minded Loyalists (pro-France) political groups responded to stress the same: "If the exchanges that you are proposing on next 16 January were to revisit the political equilibriums of the Bougival Agreement, then the Loyalists will simply not support it".

They said it was "unacceptable" that the concessions already made "should just be regarded as simple steps ahead of new concessions, especially if those take place in a climate of blackmail and threats of violence from the radical pro-independence camp".

FLNKS also has its conditions

Another mail came from Nouméa on Thursday, this time from the FLNKS.

The President of the UC-FLNKS Congress caucus, Pierre-Chanel Téin-Tutugoro, was also asking from "clarifications".

Implying that as a "liberation movement", only FLNKS is the only legitimate voice of the pro-independence camp, it points out that the question of political dialogue "cannot be discussed outside of FLNKS's recognised bodies".

Alluding to the presidential invitation to the FLNKS members of the Congress, and its outright rejection of anything related to the Bougival document, he said under the current circumstances, this kind of talks "does not allow to create the conditions of a sincere and useful dialogue".

A delegation from FLNKS, including its President Christian Téin, is this week in Paris.

The main purpose of the group's visit is to advocate their cause and stance with MPs from both Houses of the French Parliament.

It was also envisaged to request an appointment with Macron in order to "clarify the framework, the objectives and the method for a possible resumption of talks" and "go back on the right track".

Pierre-Chanel Téin-Tutugoro deplores that the presidential invite was sent to his Congress members group, not to the FLNKS President Christian Téin.