A flurry of resignations from ministers has drawn the Liberal leadership crisis into its fourth day.
Malcolm Turnbull is still Prime Minister, for now.
Peter Dutton has declared he will challenge again if he has the support.
But that could backfire - here's why.
- 10 ministers have resigned, but eight of those resignations have been rejected
- Malcolm Turnbull is trying to keep his dissenters 'in-house'
- A leadership change could lead to the Government losing the support of key MPs, and bring on an early election
What is happening right now?
Many of the Liberal frontbench continue to tell Malcolm Turnbull they want to resign after voting against him in the party room ballot.
The Prime Minister has sought to reject these resignations as he hopes to get on with business.
At a press conference on Wednesday afternoon he announced that the policy of corporate tax cuts for businesses with turnover greater than $50 million - regarded as unpopular by some Liberal MPs - would be abandoned.
Alongside key supporters Treasurer Scott Morrison and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, he even criticised a plan from Peter Dutton to scrap the GST on energy bills.
Behind closed doors and on phones, Mr Dutton and his backers are testing support, despite the party room defeat on Tuesday.
Mr Dutton confirmed on Wednesday morning that if he believes he has the support of a majority of the party room, he will challenge again.
Further proof came on Thursday night, when his camp sought to create panic in Parliament House and pressure Mr Turnbull into calling another spill.
Which ministers have resigned?
As of Thursday morning, the following ministers and assistant ministers have attempted to resign:
- Peter Dutton (Home Affairs). His resignation was accepted
- Concetta Fierravanti-Wells (Minister for International Development). Her resignation was accepted
- James McGrath (Assistant Minister to the Prime Minister). His resignation was rejected at a first, but then accepted on Wednesday.
- Senator Zed Seselja (Assistant Minister for Jobs) and Michael Sukkar (Assistant Treasurer). They formally tendered their resignations on Thursday morning. These were accepted.
- Ministers Steven Ciobo (Trade), Greg Hunt (Health), Michael Keenan (Human Services), Angus Taylor (Law Enforcement), Alan Tudge (Citizenship). Their resignations were not accepted.
- Ministers Mathias Cormann (Finance), Michaelia Cash (Employment) and Mitch Fifield (Communications) also announced they wanted to resign on Thursday morning.
How can you not accept a resignation?
Think of it as a three step process.The first part is that most frontbenchers who voted for Mr Dutton offered their resignation "as a matter of integrity". The second step is for Mr Turnbull to either accept or not accept. In the latter cases, he has has told them he is happy to keep working with them despite their admission they voted for his challenger.
That leaves step three up to them - they can either get on with working together as if nothing happened or they can insist that they are quitting and go to the backbench. So far most have stayed on the frontbench.
Why doesn't Malcolm Turnbull just replace them?
The Prime Minister is trying to get on with the job of governing, and having to reshuffle his Cabinet is not something he wants to do as he seeks to shore up his support.
If he is to succeed in the long-term, he must convince his critics that his leadership is best for the party... and best for each of them too.
It may be easier to achieve if they enjoy the status - and pay bump - that comes with a ministry.
Whose attempted resignation would be a fatal blow?
Liberals are keenly watching Senator Cormann. He is a very substantial figure in the Government and not just because he is its Senate leader. He is a powerbroker from the Right and, along with Mr Dutton, formed the Prime Minister's conservative Praetorian Guard.
But Senator Cormann's best mate is Mr Dutton. Senator Cormann has regularly been the go-to man during parliamentary strife but this week he has been conspicuously quiet, perhaps reflecting how he is torn between showing loyalty to the Prime Minister and backing the ambitions of his friend.
If Senator Cormann swings behind Mr Dutton he would bring enough votes for Mr Turnbull's leadership to topple.
So will Dutton challenge again?
His comments suggest so.
He told 3AW on Wednesday morning: "You don't go into a ballot believing that you can lose and if I believe that a majority of colleagues support me then I would consider my position.
"That's being very honest and upfront with you and that's how I see it."
Liberals expect another challenge.
Why would people who voted for Turnbull last time vote for Dutton next time?
Some Liberals stuck with the Prime Minister believing the challenge would be easily defeated. Knowing Mr Dutton got so close without calling colleagues or a fully constructed pitch, some of Mr Turnbull's supporters will switch sides to bring an end to the uncertainty.
Anxiety about Mr Dutton's broader voter appeal is high among some quarters but there is widespread belief that Mr Turnbull is heading for electoral defeat. Liberals say Mr Dutton's numbers are firming but there is always a chance a third candidate will emerge.
Treasurer Scott Morrison has supporters keen to see him become PM, arguing he is a more fully-formed political character. One told the ABC that it was Mr Morrison who "stopped the boats" and reshaped the welfare system.
What happens to the Government if Dutton wins?
The Government would face a huge task to convince voters of its merits with less than 12 months before the next election.
But it's clear Mr Dutton is already planning for the move.
He has begun outlining various policy ideas, including bigger investment in water infrastructure and a royal commission into power and fuel companies.
Is there a chance the move backfires?
Victorian Nationals MP Darren Chester has indicated that he may sit on the crossbench if Malcolm Turnbull was to lose the leadership.
South Australian NXT MP Rebekha Sharkie and Victorian independent Cathy McGowan have said they are reserving their position on whether they will "guarantee supply" - that is give the Government the money it needs to govern.
All of this means that a change in leadership might lead to the Coalition losing control of the House of Representatives.
An early election would be the result, and the Liberal party would be far behind Labor in its preparations.
But it's also possible another challenge never comes
Mr Dutton's bullish comments on radio indicate that if he has the support, he will mount a challenge.
Those comments were also a call to action to his supporters to drum up the necessary support.
The longer Mr Turnbull goes without a challenge, the better his chances of surviving until the election.
Could there be another challenger?
In the 2009 Liberal spill, Joe Hockey was widely tipped to come out on top following the challenge to Mr Turnbull.
He was ousted in the first round of voting however as the moderates split between Mr Turnbull and Mr Hockey.
In the second round, Tony Abbott picked up just enough of the Hockey support to claim the leadership from Mr Turnbull, 42 votes to 41.
If a new challenger, such as Mr Morrison, emerged he could steal votes from both Turnbull and Dutton camps in the first round, making the elimination of either a possibility.