Long Range Weather

Issued by MetService on Sunday 15-Feb-2026 at 11:50am

Now the MetService long range forecast for all New Zealand to midnight Thursday

The Situation

A low northeast of the North Island deepens and moves south near the east coast of the North Island today. The low becomes slow moving and continues to deepen tomorrow directing a strong southerly flow over northern and central New Zealand.

Looking at the weather to midnight tomorrow

Warnings for severe gales and heavy rain for eastern and central New Zealand.

Northland to Waitomo, also Coromandel and Bay of Plenty

Isolated showers, one or two possibly heavy south of Auckland this afternoon and evening. Turning to rain south of Hamilton for a time tomorrow morning.

Gisborne and Hawke's Bay

Rain, with heavy falls south of Poverty Bay easing to isolated showers tomorrow morning. Southwesterlies rising to severe gale south of Poverty Bay this afternoon.

Taranaki and the central high country to Wellington, also Wairarapa and Marlborough

Rain developing this afternoon or evening, heavy at times, and southwesterlies rising to severe gale in exposed places. Rain clearing from Manawatu north tomorrow evening and easing elsewhere.

Nelson, and Buller to Fiordland

Fine today. Scattered showers north of the glaciers tomorrow.

Canterbury, Otago and Southland

Cloudy. Isolated showers, turning to rain in Canterbury this evening, possibly heavy.

Chatham Islands

Rain developing tonight, and easterlies rising to gale, both easing late tomorrow. Thunderstorms possible tomorrow morning and afternoon.

And the outlook for the following three days...

Tuesday

North Island: Rain in the south clearing to mainly fine. Isolated showers elsewhere. South Island: Mostly fine in the west. Occasional rain or showers elsewhere.

Wednesday

North Island: Scattered showers in the west spreading everywhere for a time in the afternoon and evening. South Island: Partly cloudy with scattered showers, mainly afternoon and evening.

Thursday

North Island: Scattered showers in the west. Mainly fine in the east. South Island: Showers in the south and west turning to rain in Fiordland later. Isolated showers elsewhere.

Friday

North Island: Showers in the west clearing. Mainly fine in the east. South Island: Showers or a period of rain for most, clearing later.

And at the Chathams

Mostly cloudy, with periods of rain or showers on Tuesday. Fine at first on Wednesday, but rain returning later. Rain easing to isolated showers on Thursday, but further rain Friday evening. Strong northerlies easing Tuesday, turning strong easterly on Wednesday and strong southerly early Thursday. Becoming strong westerly late Thursday, easing for a time on Friday.

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