There is a strong likelihood Hawke's Bay will be hit by a prolonged dry spell this summer, despite the region having a good amount of rain so far this spring, a local climate consultant says.
James Morrison from WeatherStation said it had been a reasonably typical spring in Hawke's Bay, but El Nino conditions have meant there were fewer frosts through the middle of October.
Mr Morrison said every El Nino was different but this one was shaping up along the lines of what happened in the late 1990s.
"And it did turn quite dry. I know we've had a lot of rain leading up into early spring but the problem with the strong winds coming is if they continue through to Christmas and into New Year it will dry the ground out very very quickly and any benefits of that rain is going to be lost.
"So it wouldn't surprise me to see things stay very very dry from about the middle to end of November right through to early or mid March."