Supporters of a candidate in the flawed election of PNG's Southern Highlands Provincial Governor mobilised with guns amid ongoing election-related unrest in 2018. Photo: RNZ Pacific/ Melvin Levongo
Analysis - Papua New Guinea prime Minister James Marape has sent a clear signal in the opening weeks of 2026: the Papua New Guinea Government is no longer willing to treat law and order, elections and political stability as separate challenges.
His recent statements on illegal firearms, the appointment of John Pundari as Police Minister, and the early launch of national preparations for the 2027 General Election form a connected political narrative. Together, they point to a government seeking to reassert authority - over security, over institutions, and over the conditions under which the next election will be held.
A harder line on guns
Marape's language on illegal firearms has been unusually direct. He has framed the spread of high-powered weapons not simply as a criminal justice issue, but as a fundamental challenge to the authority of the state.
"The gun must belong only to the state," he said, confirming the continuation and expansion of Operation Kumul 23, following the recent formation of the Kumul 23 police tactical response unit. References to targeted security operations, including the extraction of armed offenders, signal that the government is prepared to accept controversy in pursuit of visible enforcement outcomes.
That willingness was underscored by the prime minister's open backing of a recent police operation that resulted in five deaths, including two key suspects.
By publicly supporting the operation, Marape made clear that the government stands behind the security forces involved and accepts responsibility for the consequences of enforcement-led policing.
This marks a significant political choice. Fatal outcomes in police operations have historically triggered public anger, community grief and calls for restraint. In this case, Marape has chosen to frame the deaths within a broader argument about restoring order and dismantling criminal networks linked to illegal firearms.
Papua New Guinea - Weapons confiscated by Police during a raid in the Tsak Valley during which five people were killed. 2 January 2026 Photo: PNG Police Force
However, the approach carries internal and external risks. Community leaders and families affected by the operation have raised concerns about the conduct of security forces, and there are indications of pressure being applied within government by MPs whose electorates have been impacted by recent raids. While these tensions have not surfaced openly in public, they point to the delicate balance the prime minister is attempting to maintain between firm enforcement and political cohesion.
Politically, the shift matters. Armed violence has distorted elections, intimidated voters and undermined public confidence in parts of the Highlands and urban centres. By backing lethal police operations and placing guns at the centre of his messaging, Marape is arguing that restoring the state's monopoly on force must come before reconciliation or reform.
Why John Pundari matters - and why his appointment is contested
The recent appointment of John Pundari as police minister reinforces that argument, but it has not been without controversy.
Pundari is a senior political figure from Enga Province, one of the regions most affected by illegal firearms, tribal conflict and election-related violence. Marape has explicitly linked that background to Pundari's suitability for the role, presenting him as a minister prepared to confront the problem directly.
Not everyone agrees. Social media commentary and public discussion have pointed to Pundari's own Kompiam-Ambum electorate, which has experienced repeated bouts of tribal fighting and election violence, as evidence that his record is open to question. Critics argue that his relative inability to contain instability locally raises doubts about his capacity to deliver order nationally.
Supporters counter that such criticism oversimplifies deeply entrenched problems, noting that no single MP can control complex local conflicts, and that lived experience of insecurity may be an asset rather than a liability.
What is clear is that the appointment carries political risk. If violence continues or escalates, scrutiny will fall heavily on the police minister. If enforcement delivers visible improvements, Marape's decision will be vindicated.
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Removing politics from policing
Alongside the appointment of Pundari, Marape has issued a public directive to remove politics from policing. It reflects long-standing concerns that law enforcement in Papua New Guinea has sometimes been shaped by political pressure, clan allegiances or fear of backlash.
By promising legal protection for police and defence personnel carrying out authorised operations, the prime minister is attempting to centralise responsibility and reduce hesitation on the ground. The implication is clear: enforcement is now a matter of state policy, not local negotiation.
Election preparation as governance, not campaigning
The early start to preparations for the 2027 general election completes the picture. Marape has ordered a whole-of-government approach, chaired by the chief secretary and involving security, intelligence, legal and electoral agencies. The government says it has allocated K50 million in the 2026 Budget, with assurances that further funding will be made available if required.
This is unusually early by PNG standards, where election planning has often been reactive and compressed. The prime minister has argued that recent political stability has finally created space to focus on systems rather than survival.
But the timing raises an unavoidable question: is the government preparing for another turbulent election period, after the last three national elections were marked by violence, contested outcomes and serious logistical failures?
Marape's own remarks suggest an awareness of that risk. He has spoken openly about weak data, poor logistics and inadequate security overwhelming past elections, leaving the Electoral Commission exposed and public confidence damaged. The early involvement of security and intelligence agencies implies that the government does not expect 2027 to be straightforward.
Voting in the PNG election Photo: Raguel Kepas
There is also a clear political calculation at play. By moving early, the government is attempting to shape expectations before campaigning begins. Election preparation is being framed not as an admission of anticipated instability, but as responsible governance - a corrective response to years of institutional strain.
Marape has reinforced that framing by urging voters to reject violence, vote-buying and tribal intimidation, and by explicitly inviting citizens to vote against him in 2027 if they are dissatisfied. It is both an appeal to democratic legitimacy and a pre-emptive defence against claims that the system itself is unsafe or compromised.
One strategy, three fronts
Seen separately, the gun crackdown, the police appointment and the election preparations could be read as routine governance. Read together, they form a single strategy aimed at stabilising the political environment well ahead of the next national poll.
The logic is simple. Guns undermine policing. Weak policing undermines elections. Flawed elections undermine legitimacy. By addressing all three simultaneously, Marape is attempting to break a cycle that has shaped Papua New Guinea's politics for decades.
The risks ahead
The risks are considerable. While the government has announced a K50 million allocation for early election preparation, questions remain about how much of that funding will actually be accessed, released on time, and translated into effective action on the ground. In past elections, budgeted funds have not always flowed as planned, contributing to last-minute procurement, logistical breakdowns and security gaps.
Supporters of election candidate Alfred Manase take to the streets in Wabag town, as violence erupts in Enga's provincial capital, 22 July 2017. Photo: Supplied
There is also deep public dissatisfaction with the integrity of electoral systems themselves. Concerns about the accuracy of the electoral roll, unresolved questions around census data, and lingering mistrust of election management continue to shape public expectations. For many voters, confidence in the process has been eroded over successive elections, regardless of who is in government.
These structural weaknesses mean that enforcement and early planning alone may not be enough. Without visible improvements in data quality, transparency and administration, early preparation risks being viewed as another promise rather than a turning point.
The picture that emerges is one of early intervention rather than last-minute response. Policing will be judged in real time, the reach of the state will be tested on the ground, and election preparations are starting sooner than usual - not out of confidence, but out of hard experience.
