9 Apr 2024

Coalition parties down, opposition up in Taxpayers Union-Curia poll

3:20 pm on 9 April 2024
The Beehive in the evening in Central Wellington

Photo: RNZ / Cole Eastham-Farrelly

The latest Taxpayers Union poll has all three governing parties losing support and all three opposition parties gaining, with smaller parties marking the biggest changes.

The coalition parties still had 64 seats between them on the numbers, easily enough to govern, with a greater vote percentage for Te Pāti Māori pointing to a 120-seat Parliament with no overhang seats, under the assumption electorate seats remain the same.

  • National: 37.1 percent, down 0.3 points (47 seats)
  • Labour: 25.7 percent, up 0.4 points (32 seats)
  • Greens: 14.6 percent, up 3.3 points (18 seats)
  • ACT: 7.2 percent, down 2.8 points (9 seats)
  • NZ First: 6.3 percent, down 1.1 points (8 seats)
  • Te Pāti Māori: 4.6 percent, up 2.1 points (6 seats)

All non-Parliamentary parties scored less than 2 percentage points, with TOP on 1.6 percent and Outdoors and Freedom on 1.5 percent the only ones recording higher than 1 percentage point of support.

Leaders' net favourability dipped across the board, with National's Christopher Luxon down 2 points to -7 percent, and Labour's Chris Hipkins down 8 points to -6 percent, the first time a Labour leader had a negative net favourability in a TPU-Curia poll.

David Seymour down 3 points to -11 percent, Winston Peters fell 6 points to -18 percent. The outfit polled on National MP Chris Bishop, whose favourability was -4 percent, and new Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick on -19 percent.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers' Union.

It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between 2 and 4 April 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, with undecided votes accounting for 5.6 percent of respondents on the party vote question.

Full results are available on the Taxpayers Union website.