2 Aug 2023

National leads Labour in new poll but Hipkins still more popular than Luxon

6:18 pm on 2 August 2023
The Beehive

Photo: RNZ

A new Newshub-Reid Research poll shows support for Labour has dropped 3.6 points to 32.3 percent while support for National is up 1.3 points to 36.6 percent.

On these numbers, National and ACT comfortably have the numbers to form the next government.

The previous Newshub poll in May came before the Budget and showed left-leaning parties Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori barely able to form a government.

It has been a tough time since then for Labour, with Michael Wood and Kiri Allan removed as ministers, and Education Minister Jan Tinetti apologising after misleading Parliament.

Hipkins - who has taken trips to China and the EU - has also ruled out a wealth or capital gains tax, and there was also the shooting at an Auckland construction site.

The latest figures indicate National and ACT comfortably have the numbers to form the next government.

  • Labour: 32.3 percent, down 3.6 points, 42 seats
  • National: 36.6 percent, up 1.3 points, 47 seats
  • ACT: 12.1 percent, up 1.3 points, 16 seats
  • Greens: 9.6 percent, up 1.5 points, 12 seats
  • Te Pāti Māori: 2.7 percent, down 0.8 point, 3 seats
  • NZ First: 4.1 percent, up 1.1 points

Preferred prime minister:

  • Chris Hipkins: 24 percent
  • Christopher Luxon: 15.9 percent
  • David Seymour: 10.9 percent
  • Winston Peters: 4.3 percent
  • Jacinda Ardern: 3.7 percent

The poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters between 26 July - 31 July 2023 and was weighted for demographics, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.