Finance Minister Grant Robertson previews the Budget. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
The government's warning about a 'no frills' Budget is tempering expectations about a big climate spend right when some argue it is desperately needed.
There are fears the cost of living crisis and cyclone recovery could swamp necessary spending on initiatives to reduce emissions.
MRCagney transport consultant and engineer Bridget Doran said there needed to be a paradigm shift away from road- and car-centric transport planning for the sake of the planet, and to make peoples' lives better.
"Business as usual isn't going to cut it in the 2020s and 2030s, and we know that. The question now is... how are we going to do this differently?"
But Doran said a government u-turn in March put a major dampener on what hopes there were that this Budget could see major increased investment in public transport, walking and cycling. The government dropped climate change from being its top transport priority.
It had intended to reallocate some of the money normally spent on road maintenance towards bus and bike lanes.
The change was prompted by the devastation from Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland Anniversary floods - the government said they changed everything.
In a pre-Budget announcement this week it put $1 billion towards the recovery.
Treasury estimated the cost of asset damage from the floods and Cyclone at between $9 billion and $14.5b, with half of that related to infrastructure owned by central or local government, such as roads.
While critics understood the need to repair damaged roads and infrastructure, there were also worries the focus on recovery and "bread and butter" issues could displace other climate spending.
Climate decisions often not 'bread and butter decisions'
University of Waikato environmental planning professor Iain White said the 'business as usual' approach failed to grapple with the speed and scale of the emissions reductions needed.
"Some of the decisions we've got to make are not bread and butter decisions.
"They are a shift in some of our spending towards more climate mitigations... which is far from a bread and butter point of view."
White said New Zealand's relatively low debt meant we have the room to borrow, so it was time to do so and fix the proverbial roof.
"The roof is broken, and it has been for a while, and it's leaking. I'd like to see some investment in things which will bear fruit [in the] long term."
Photo: supplied
University of Canterbury political science professor and UN climate report author Bronwyn Hayward said long-term thinking and greater resources needed to be invested, and now.
"We have to think a lot smarter, we just can't build back better in the same location. We do have to be thinking very carefully about managed retreat at the same time."
Policy bonfire means emissions cuts in transport needed
The government's policy bonfire earlier this year torched a number of climate policies, including a biofuel mandate which accounted for half of transport emissions reductions out to 2035 - although there have also been wins from the quicker-than-expected uptake in EVs.
This left a hole in transport emissions reductions. Experts told RNZ there needed to be a large increase in investment in cycling, walking and public transport infrastructure.
Climate Change Commission figures show transport emissions must be cut by 13 percent by 2030, and 41 percent by 2035 to achieve emissions goals, which equated to cutting fossil fuel vehicle distance travelled by 20 percent within 13 years.
White said the government should zero in on getting bike lane networks in the major cities fully funded and set a short time limit for when work should be completed.
Doran said she wanted to see spending diverted from building gold-plated roads towards investing in communities to ensure they have what they need nearby, and would be less disrupted when storms come through and damaged transport links for short periods.
Hayward said the cyclone spend, combined with this being an election year, risked locking the government into making short-term spending decisions which undermined the ultimate goal of building resilient communities.
"We need the long-term very considered structural spend that shifts our patterns of development so that we have public transport that is low carbon within the cities and linking the cities."
In climate spending so far this Budget, the government has announced $300m in new funding for its green investment bank.
It has also recently pledged to buy 18 new trains for the lower North Island for an undisclosed sum. Last Budget, about $3 billion in total was allocated to climate spending over four years, and about $2.3 billion in 2021.
Last year, the government set up the Climate Emergency Response Fund - fed from revenue from the Emissions Trading Scheme - to pay for climate initiatives.
This year, changes have been made to allow money from it to be spent on adapting to the changes wrought by climate change, as well as on mitigating or reducing emissions.
