The latest One News Colmar Brunton Poll has National in a position to govern with the help of the ACT Party.
In tonight's result National is on 47 - up two percentage points - while Labour has dropped three to 40.
New Zealand First would not make it back with just four points, while the Greens are on seven.
This poll would give National and ACT's one seat in Epsom enough to govern while Labour and the Greens together would not be able to form a government.
This is the first time in two years of Colmar Brunton polling that the National Party has been in a position to form a government.
It's also the worst result in 18 months of the same poll for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern who has hit an all-time low for preferred prime minister.
Ms Ardern has dropped three percentage points to 38 while Opposition leader Simon Bridges is up three points to nine.
Ms Ardern isn't bothered by the drop, saying the party is still polling higher than its 2017 election result.
"In fact we're in a better position than when we were even elected. I take confidence in that boost in support since election night.
"Obviously there are a number of things that we have plans to do over the next 12 months that I think will only continue to boost New Zealanders' confidence that we're investing in the things they want to see investment in,'' she said.
National Party leader Simon Bridges declined to comment on the poll.
National Party MP Judith Collins is on five points while New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is on four.
The polling was conducted between October 5 and 9 with 1008 eligible voters surveyed.
The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.