ACT's campaign calculus to 'keep the government' and keep its edge

Analysis: For the ACT Party, the challenge this term has been - and remains - how to stand apart from its coalition partners without pulling apart the government.

That tension has ebbed and flowed - most clearly on display during the Treaty Principles debate and now reemerging around the Regulatory Standards Bill.

But ACT's annual rally on Sunday gave a clear indication of how the party intends to navigate the tightrope for the remaining 15 or so months.

For one, David Seymour centred his keynote speech on the cost-of-living, a recognition that that remains the biggest risk to the coalition's reelection.

Of course, he did it in distinct ACT-style, making a comparison with his Cabinet colleagues' recent criticisms of the big banks, supermarkets or power companies.

"It would be the easiest thing in the world... to write and give a speech saying they're crooked and they need to be punished somehow," Seymour told supporters.

"But that would be the curse of zero sum thinking."

Though Seymour denied it later, it was hard not to see the comment as a veiled criticism of National and NZ First ministers, given their recent attention on such industries.

They might scapegoat those industries, Seymour implied, but ACT won't.

Seymour's speech gave a nod to the voters ACT would be targeting next year - landlords, farmers, firearms users, small business owners - all hotly contested constituencies within the coalition.

And he was not shy about reminding the 450-strong audience of other differences too.

"Our partners... abandoned us in defining the Treaty Principles," he told supporters.

But beyond the differences came a curious confirmation: that ACT would be campaigning next year to "keep this government".

The seemingly benign commitment is an open admission that a centre-right election victory will almost certainly require a repeat of the three-way coalition.

Asked later by RNZ about the declaration, Seymour made it more explicit: "We need to keep these parties in power."

These parties. NZ First included.

That's perhaps not that surprising given current polling, but it is quite a difference from ACT's approach in 2023 - which saw Seymour viciously attack NZ First and its leader Winston Peters.

It's also different from Peters' message several weeks ago as he handed over the deputy prime ministership to Seymour. Then, Peters said he intended to "remove any doubt" next election.

Of course, behind the scenes, ACT and NZ First would much prefer to eliminate the other and become the sole coalition partner.

National, for its part, would like to get back over 40 percent to regain choice.

But none can afford to bring the whole caboodle down in the process. And there, again, is the tightrope.

One foot in Cabinet, the other in campaign mode

ACT is currently polling roughly 9 percent - a fraction above its 2023 election result and consistent with its average across last year.

Historically, a stint in government has proved electoral quicksand for support parties, but ACT and NZ First seem to be defying the trend.

In large part, that's due to the political landscape with the major parties languishing in the low 30s, leaving more room for the minor parties.

But ACT has also made a deliberate effort not to vanish into Cabinet.

The party has kept one foot in government and the other in campaign mode - trumpeting its policy wins, while also criticising its coalition partners when convenient.

It has certainly not shied away from provocation, as evidenced even by its choice of guest speaker on Sunday: anti-woke crusader Dr James Lindsay.

Look to the "gutsy" pay equity cuts, the Treaty Principles Bill, and now the Regulatory Standards Bill.

On each occasion, the backlash was immense, but so too was the airtime.

And each time Seymour declared unapologetically: we're not here to be liked, we're here to be right.

He said as much again in his Sunday speech: "People will pile on and say I'm defending big business, or whatever, but political risks are part of leadership."

The strategy carries risks indeed. Former National leader Simon Bridges, in his 2021 memoir, reflected on the personal toll of such tactics: yes, the party vote stayed up, but not so his personal ratings.

David Seymour is experiencing something similar. His own favourability ratings are routinely poor.

In the most recent Post/Freshwater Strategy poll, just 25 percent had a favourable view of ACT, while 47 percent were unfavourable - the second worst result of any party, after only Te Pāti Māori.

But for a minor party, that trade-off seems worth it, with visibility counting for more than likability.

The cost of instability

ACT's strategy has also, at times, fed the perception of coalition instability, or of National being dragged around by its smaller partners.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has repeatedly dismissed that, instead framing the dynamic as simply the "maturation of MMP". But voters are still adjusting to that reality.

The latest example of friction would appear to be Seymour's Regulatory Standards Bill, bubbling away in the background.

NZ First has made clear it wants changes to the legislation, but Seymour says he's yet to even hear what they are.

Furthermore, he firmly believes he's under no obligation to make changes and that the coalition agreement already requires National and NZ First's support.

The apparent impasse remains unresolved.

For all that, though, the governing parties are aware the public does not look kindly on instability.

Seymour learned that the hard way in the weeks before the 2023 election when he floated the idea of ACT signing a "confidence-only" deal if National refused to cooperate during negotiations.

Almost immediately, the party's support dropped several points in the polls.

That lesson still looms over the coalition today, especially given the narrow margins and economic headwinds.

All three coalition parties would do well to remember the common enemy.

They may be competing for votes inside the tent, but the real fight lies outside it: with the opposition.

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