Power Play: Christopher Luxon tries to win over his own party

7:23 am on 8 August 2022

The magenta wash shot through the true blue National branding is one way Christopher Luxon is making his mark as party leader, and he'll be hoping this past weekend's party conference will be another.

At the party's annual conference, National unveiled plans to shift those who've been on welfare for more than a year off, using support and sanctions.

Christopher Luxon attempted to reintroduce himself to party faithful at the weekend. Photo: RNZ/ Jane Patterson

There was a large turnout in Christchurch of more than 600 delegates who wanted to see a party with its act together and ready to take on Labour and Jacinda Ardern next year. Even if voters truly support core party values, it's hard to back a party in chaos, whether it be Labour, the Greens or National.

You get the feeling National members are still getting to know Luxon as leader, and remain slightly reserved about how he's shaping up: "He's crawling - now he's just got to learn to walk", one told RNZ.

Previous leaders, even the relative newcomer John Key, had been much more ensconced in the party, had done their time at conferences, in electorate business and in the bear pit of Parliament, before taking the reins of a major political party.

That was what this weekend was all about - getting to know the Luxons and creating credibility. It was quite the family affair with wife Amanda doing the introductions and Mum and Dad at the conference in support; the obligatory personal back story and highly produced videos designed to present him as a Prime Minister in waiting.

National Party conference

The National Party tried to change the narrative at the weekend. Photo: RNZ / Jane Patterson

Members seemed to warm to Luxon through the weekend; there were rather muted responses to some of his earlier addresses but a well delivered keynote speech, hitting the right notes for delegates telling young beneficiaries the "free ride" under Labour was over.

There was also a policy of direct support for those wanting to get into work, a combination to avert accusations of "beneficiary bashing" and to present an approach based on giving people the chance to get into work, and all the benefits that come with it.

It's an interesting area to choose given there is such low unemployment and the number of people who are able to work, and on a Jobseeker benefit, has dropped by about 10 percent compared with the year before. However, National is highlighting the fact those numbers have risen significantly since Labour took office, including for young people.

The intention is good but there are serious questions around the implementation. How would authorities or job coaches differentiate between people unable or unwilling to work on the Jobseeker benefit, given there are people with illness or disability in this category. How will "community providers" be vetted, chosen and held accountable when they, through job coaches, would have the power to influence a cut to someone's benefit?

National says the individuals and the job coaches would work together on a job plan and the person on a benefit would have "agency" - all fine if it actually works in practice.

It's not a simple picture, but the numbers give National a line of attack about personal responsibility, a lax Labour regime and failure to deliver, that will resonate with the base.

National Party leader Christopher Luxon speaks to media outside the National Party's annual conference in Christchurch on 6 August, 2022.

Luxon is still facing many challenges. Photo: RNZ / Craig McCulloch

However, Luxon and National themselves have a number of vulnerabilities.

Despite his repeated assurances abortion law would not change under a National government, a lot of distrust remains among women given Luxon's personal position and the make-up of the current caucus.

His political inexperience may bring some value in a fresh perspective but is an Achilles heel for someone pitching to take power next year.

And as the election draws closer, Luxon and National will only come under more scrutiny about how they intend to deliver tax cuts while maintaining adequate levels of spending in crucial areas. For now there are promises of a 'line by line' review, harking back to National campaigns past.

Luxon is name-checking a number of Labour initiatives seen as "wasteful spending" - largely the big centralisation changes: the health and polytech sectors, Three Waters and the new public media entity formed from TVNZ and RNZ.

The problem is much of that money will already have been spent if and when National takes power next year; if they roll back the reforms doesn't that constitute a waste of money in itself? Past that, where do the cuts come in the alternative budget National will have to present next year, in order to offset the inflationary impact of tax cuts, without slashing health or education, as promised in March?

National has been through a bruising couple of years, reflected by damaging publicity and challenges maintaining membership and raising funds - it's a hard road to rebuild public trust.

New party President Sylvia Wood - by all accounts very highly regarded across the party - and the stabilisation of the political wing under Luxon, will give the membership some heart about their chances, but there are plenty of potential pitfalls between now and election 2023.

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