Analysis - There's a definite shift in trans-Tasman relations as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern visits Sydney and Melbourne, surging Covid cases lead to speculation that the government might turn on the red traffic light again and the government takes another step in its bid to get a better deal for supermarket shoppers.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is in Australia on a trade mission and to attend a leadership forum. Photo: Supplied / Adam O'Sullivan
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was in Melbourne and Sydney this week welcoming a clear shift to a warmer trans-Tasman relationship under Australia's new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
"It feels like a new breeze has blown through Australian politics," said Stuff's political editor Luke Malpass after Albanese announced New Zealanders would get the same flood relief support as anyone else in New South Wales.
"The significance of it was plain to see: New Zealand residents in Australia who work, pay taxes and start businesses would be treated the same by the Australian government," Malpass said.
"After years of 501s and previous Australian Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton talking about 'taking out the trash' when New Zealanders of ill character - many of whom had little or no connection to New Zealand - were deported, the difference is clear."
Ardern's response, reported by RNZ, was that there had been a significant shift in policy and a return to fairness.
"What happened before was unfair - grossly unfair. I think it fundamentally represents a government that takes a different view of Kiwis in Australia and the contributions they make," she said.
She saw it as progress on the topic of New Zealand migrants' rights in Australia, which she said was also at the heart of concerns about 501 deportees.
Albanese has previously indicated he is prepared to consider New Zealand's concerns about aspects of the deportation policy - something the previous Australian government wouldn't go near - but Ardern doesn't expect rapid change.
"I have not necessarily set that expectation this early on because the one thing that we are very mindful of is that underpinning the 501 issue is actually the issue of citizenship," she said.
"None of those issues can be resolved in weeks, I understand that, what I'm looking for is, you know, a commitment to keep working them through."
Jacinda Ardern and Anthony Albanese. File photo. Photo: Supplied / Office of the Prime Minister
At her formal talks with Albanese on Friday, Ardern got what she wanted.
At a joint press conference, Albanese announced the rights of New Zealanders living in Australia, including the path to citizenship, would be reviewed by Anzac Day next year.
Senior ministers from the two countries would also meet every year to work together on trans-Tasman and regional matters, including on climate change.
Albanese repeated previous statements that the 502s policy would remain in place and people would continue to be deported, but signalled work on how to give New Zealanders living in Australia an easier pathway to citizenship would be completed by 25 April 2023, RNZ reported.
During her Australian visit, Ardern has worked her way through a packed itinerary of tourism and business promotions during her visit, which was aimed primarily at achieving "reconnection" with New Zealand's biggest trade and tourism partner after two years of border closure.
She's returning this weekend to concerns at home about surging Covid cases and speculation that the government could turn the red traffic light back on.
Between 1 July and 7 July daily case numbers increased from 6984 to 10,710 and hospitalisations from 417 to 554.
When the country moved from red to orange in April cases and hospitalisations were reducing. The previous trigger point for going to red was around 10,000 daily cases.
Ardern was asked about that during her Australian tour and said there was no need to go back to red at present, RNZ reported.
She said the country would only move back to red if doing so would have a material effect on slowing case numbers.
"Keep in mind we have really important rules at the orange setting that are there to protect us," she said.
"Having just come from Europe, also recently the United States, even being here in Australia I can tell you that New Zealand is still using measures many other countries don't."
University of Auckland infectious diseases expert Dr Siouxsie Wiles told RNZ another wave of Covid-19 had been expected and shouldn't come as a surprise.
University of Canterbury professor and Covid-19 modeller Michael Plank said infections could potentially hit a similar peak to the first March wave of around 20,000 cases a day.
The New Zealand Herald said in a report the latest outbreak was different "because it marks the first time that we are vulnerable to the impact of our relaxed border settings".
It quoted University of Auckland senior lecturer Dr David Welsh: "If we keep going the way we are we could be up to 25,000 cases a day by August."
The Herald's news director Lynley Ward, who has monitored case numbers daily since the pandemic began, said despite the rapid rise in numbers and growing pressure on the health system the prime minister had so far been reluctant to put the country back into the red setting.
"Ward says this largely drives home the fact that the government is taking more than just health into account when making policy decisions at the moment," the report said.
The Herald's political editor Claire Trevett explained why Ardern wasn't going to put the country back into red any time soon.
"It is obvious Ardern has recognised public buy-in for restrictions will be hard to harness again. She will not want to put that to the test in case she fails," Trevett said.
"The last thing the government will want to do is slap the country back into red just as school holidays are about to start - it would infuriate businesses and there is also hope that being out of the classrooms will slow the spread which was ripping through schools.
"She has already ripped the band-aid off - removing border restrictions and vaccine mandates in all but the health sector. Would it stick if she tried to plaster it on again?"
Trevett said there were question marks around why the red level existed at all, given that indoor gathering limits and seated-and-separated rules in hospitality venues were the primary difference between red and orange.
"The reason their effectiveness is being questioned is because thus far it is older people who are behind the surge in cases - and older people are considered unlikely to be going out clubbing and pubbing. Distancing rules at places you don't go to are not much use."
Settings are due to be reviewed again toward the end of July, the Herald reported, saying that by then the environment could be entirely different.
Increasing case numbers put even more pressure on the health system, and this week there were more horror headlines about resources stretched beyond their limits.
Some of Auckland's urgent and after-hours clinics had to close because of staff shortages, RNZ reported. The privately-owned clinics help take pressure off hospitals which have been swamped by winter illnesses.
"Everybody needing care, unable to get to it, (and) going to the public hospitals are being told to go to a GP or a private clinic but the private clinics are having to close due to lack of staff," said GP Peter Boot of Shorecare.
Boot and another clinician, Dr Alastair Sullivan from White Cross, said action had to be taken to address the underlying shortage of doctors and nurses.
Michael Wood, the new immigration minister, was questioned about the shortage of 4000 nurses when he was in front of Parliament's Education and Workforce Select Committee.
National's Erica Stanford wanted to know why nurses had to wait two years before they could get residence while other badly-needed skilled workers were fast-tracked under the new visa system.
The government's position is that it wants the nurses to continue nursing when they come here, and if they gained residence quickly they might not.
Opposition parties have been rejecting that for months, saying there's no evidence to support it.
Wood told the committee waiting for two years was "a significantly advanced pathway" and he didn't think it was unreasonable to require two years of work before residency.
He did, however, leave the door open for changes. "I'll be keeping a close eye on how the settings go," he said.
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark announces the new role of Grocery Commissioner. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark announced a supermarket watchdog - a Grocery Commissioner - would be appointed, providing annual reviews of the sector and holding it to account.
At the same time, Clark released a draft mandatory code of conduct for supermarkets.
He said the commissioner would be able to issue warnings and fines for code of conduct breaches. "There are a range of trade remedies available to them but they have quite substantial powers."
It was the government's latest move in its mission to get a better deal for consumers from the supermarket duopoly. Earlier this year it announced it would stop the two big chains holding land covenants which stopped competitors opening up stores, and Parliament recently passed the legislation.
Clark said he couldn't say exactly when shoppers would see the effects of the changes. He expected a commissioner to be appointed before mid-2023.
There were already behaviour changes going on in the sector and he expected to see "ongoing good behaviour" from it.
"The current situation sees the duopoly making roughly twice what a reasonable return on capital would be," he said.
"So effectively, half of what they're making now is what the Commerce Commission has suggested would be a reasonable return on capital."
*Peter Wilson is a life member of Parliament's press gallery, 22 years as NZPA's political editor and seven as parliamentary bureau chief for NZ Newswire.
