Christopher Luxon says people need guidance on Covid-19, not mandatory isolation periods. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
National Party leader Christopher Luxon says he would have physically gone back to work earlier than seven days after testing positive for Covid-19 if it were not mandatory to isolate.
Luxon caught Covid-19 a second time in March, saying it was "two or three days of really, you know, heavy flu".
"But then I was RAT testing each day - the last three days I was negative and I was quite capable of coming to work and so, you know, I just think we need to move on... I was quite capable of going back to work and we need workers back in the workforce."
The government on Tuesday said it was keeping the seven-day isolation policy for at least another couple of months, with modelling suggesting that abandoning it would see a significant increase in hospitalisations and deaths over the following six months.
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said there was a "labour market incentive" to keep the seven-day isolation in place, to make sure people were not going back to work when still infectious. The government is seeking advice on a test-to-release scheme, which could let people return sooner if they test negative.
Most of those at more risk would be in the older population, experts at Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa said.
"You see a larger increase in those hospitalisations and deaths than the increase in transmission in that short term," co-lead Dr Emily Harvey told Morning Report on Wednesday.
Assuming New Zealanders follow advice to isolate even if it's not mandatory and the increase in transmission is only boosted by 5 percent, the modelling suggests that would result in a 25 percent boost in hospital admissions and 15 percent more deaths in the following seven weeks.
The central estimate - 10 percent more transmission - could see 55 percent more hospital admissions and 34 percent more deaths, while a 15 percent transmission boost could end in 90 percent more people in hospital and 56 percent more deaths.
And that was assuming no change in the virulence of transmissibility of the virus, nor seasonal effects (for example, becoming easier to spread in winter).
"We know that people staying home when they're infectious is reducing transmission and so, as people stopped doing that, we know transmission would increase," said Harvey. "What we don't know is how many people would change their behaviour, what the guidance would be and what that would lead to in terms of transmission.
"So, what we looked at was a range of increases in transmission from a 5 percent increase up to a 15 percent increase. And that's where the resulting waves increasing in hospitalisations and deaths came from. And you see a larger increase in those hospitalisations and deaths than the increase in transmission in that short-term."
Expert support, opposition anger
Dianne Sika-Paotonu Photo: Supplied/ University of Otago
Experts expressed relief at the government's decision. Dr Rawiri Keenan of the University of Waikato said it would "help reduce the acute Covid burden but also the longer-term effects from those who also get long Covid", while immunologist Dianne Sika-Paotonu of the University of Otago Wellington said it was "welcome news… Our health and associated support systems in Aotearoa New Zealand typically experience greater pressure during the winter months."
But the opposition wants mandatory isolation gone.
"We don't have that hero complex of going to work sick - you know, that's what we've learned through Covid," Luxon told Morning Report.
"So, I think we need to trust the New Zealand people, give them strong guidance, but we don't need mandatory isolation periods."
He pointed to other countries, particularly Australia and Western European nations, saying they have "moved on" and we should too.
"It's just part of how it is. They take precautions, they do their boosters, they do their rapid antigen tests, they make sure they don't go to work when they're unwell, and that's what people need to do.
"But if you're well and you can go to work and you want to go to work and you're not gonna affect anyone? That's great. Go for it. We should trust New Zealanders to do the right thing."
Harvey said it was difficult to know how well other countries were coping without mandatory isolation, because most did not have good data on how many cases they actually had, nor whether people were previously following the rules.
"The UK has probably the best data I've seen, and over there they had a regular survey and they found that a large proportion of people did keep following the guidance to isolate - and that dropped through time."
Harvey said it was good to buy some more time, so more people could get the bivalent booster and the government could get the message out.
"Even if we don't lift the restrictions, we should have more people getting this bivalent booster. They are still looking at a lot of Covid infections and hospitalisations and deaths this winter, and a lot of them could be avoided by people getting this up-to-date booster."
To date, just over a third of those eligible have had their second booster shot, Ministry of Health data showed - most of those who have not are aged between 35 and 49.
ACT leader David Seymour in a statement called the decision "Hermit Kingdom redux, 2023 edition", saying it was "draconian" and urged the government to follow the likes of Singapore, UK and Australia.
Microbiologist Dr Siouxsie Wiles argued against following other countries' leads.
"While some people will argue this puts us more out of step with other countries, it is worth remembering that if we had followed those countries at the beginning of the pandemic, thousands more of our friends, families, and colleagues would have died and thousands more would be out of the workforce due to long Covid."
Ashley Bloomfield, who was director-general of health through the acute phase of the Covid-19 response, noted in March that New Zealand was "virtually unique" in the world in having fewer deaths than expected over the last few years - despite the pandemic.
