8 Mar 2018

Space station unlikely to hit NZ, scientist says

4:11 pm on 8 March 2018

An out-of-control Chinese space station containing toxic chemicals is plummeting towards Earth, and is expected to crash-land any time from later this month.

This TV grab taken on 2 November 2011 shows an animated video clip of the docking of the Tiangong-1 space lab module and the Shenzhou VIII (Shenzhou-8) spacecraft in space.

This TV grab taken on 2 November 2011 shows an animated video clip of the docking of the Tiangong-1 space lab module and the Shenzhou VIII (Shenzhou-8) spacecraft in space. Photo: AFP

Scientists expect the Tiangong-1 to land somewhere in Europe, the US, Australia or New Zealand between March the 24th and April the 19th.

A Harvard University astrophysicist, Jonathan McDowell, said the toxic fuel should melt away, but there is a chance a lump of the chemical will reach the ground if it is frozen.

Mr McDowell said it's impossible to predict exactly where the eight-tonne station will land and they probably won't know until an hour beforehand.

However, he said there's a 99.9 percent chance it won't hit New Zealand.

Since the Skylab hit Australia in 1979, satellites have been equipped with rocket engines to facilitate a controlled re-entry.

Tiangong-1 had the same rocket engine which was meant to bring it down over the pacific, but China used the satellite longer than it was designed for.

"They made a bet it would last, and they lost that bet," McDowell said.

Tiangong-1's toxic fuel poses a small risk if it makes landfall.

"If this thing does land next to you, stand a hundred yards away from it and you'll be fine," McDowell said.

"Don't go up to it and sniff it."