20 Sep 2023

Support for National and Labour drops, but right-wing bloc remains on course to form government, according to latest poll

6:02 pm on 20 September 2023
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, National Party Leader Christopher Luxon and ACT Party leader David Seymour.

From left, Chris Hipkins, Christopher Luxon and David Seymour. Photo: RNZ

National has dropped two points and Labour has slipped another while ACT has regained some ground in the latest political poll released tonight.

The 1News-Verian poll shows the centre right parties, National and ACT, could just manage to form a government reaching the minimum of 61 seats they require.

ACT had slipped in last week's poll, however, this time round it has lifted to 12 percent (up 2 percentage points), while National is down two to 37 percent and Labour has slipped another point to 27 percent.

NZ First has again stayed at the 5 percent threshold necessary to win seats.

The poll also revealed 12 percent of those polled remain undecided after two full weeks of campaigning and they could potentially play a significant role in the shape of the next government.

Polling of those who took part preceded last night's 1News party leaders' debate between Labour leader Chris Hipkins and National's Christopher Luxon.

  • National: 37 percent, down two points equating to 46 seats
  • Labour: 27 percent, down one point (34 seats)
  • Greens: 12 percent, up two points (15 seats)
  • ACT: 12 percent, up two points (15 seats)
  • NZ First: 5 percent, steady (6 seats)
  • Te Pāti Māori: 3 percent, steady (4 seats)

Tight leadership race

Luxon and Hipkins remain neck and neck in the preferred prime minister stakes - both find favour with 23 percent of those polled.

  • Christopher Luxon: 23 percent (steady from 9 to 12 September poll)
  • Chris Hipkins: 23 percent - steady
  • David Seymour: 5 percent - steady
  • Winston Peters: 4 percent - steady
  • Chlöe Swarbrick: 2 percent - up 1 percent
  • Nicola Willis: 2 percent - up 1 percent
  • Jacinda Ardern: 1 percent steady

The previous 1News-Verian poll, released last Wednesday, showed a two percent gain for National while all other parties represented in Parliament lost support or stayed steady.

ACT, however, was the biggest loser from that poll, with its support down three points, equating to four seats.

Respondents who refused to answer or were undecided accounted for 12 percent of responses, but these were excluded from the party vote and preferred prime minister results.

The poll canvassed the views of 1001 eligible voters and was weighted for demographics, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. It was conducted between 16 and 19 September.

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