14 May 2021

Surge in lamb prices predicted as US, UK and Europe drive demand

8:22 pm on 14 May 2021

Agri-economists are expecting a surge in lamb prices over the rest of the year, due to stronger demand from the US, Europe and The UK.

Many people are choosing to barbecue their lamb, Dunedin butcher Greg Egerton said.

File image. Photo: 123RF

Westpac lifted its farmgate lamb forecast to at least $8.00 per kilogram, possibly rocketing to over $9.00 per kilogram.

Senior agri-economist Nathan Penny said that was great for farmers' wallets.

"As, in particular, Covid vaccines roll out and more and more people head back to restaurants... we're expecting that to lead lamb prices higher," Penny said.

"Normally prices are falling at this time of year, so that's sort of pointing to some real underlying strength in demand."

Continued strong demand from China also factored into their high price predictions, he said.

"We're expecting prices to comfortably get back above $8.00 and there's a good chance that they do give $9.00 a nudge.

"This will be the second time, if we do do that, that we'll get over that mark."

At that point farmers would be making "good money", Penny said.

Lift for beef price forecast, venison might turn the corner

Broad strength across New Zealand's key export markets should give a boost to all meat sectors, Penny said.

He estimated farmgate beef prices to lift up to around $5.50 per kilogram by spring - but the weak US dollar could bring that figure back.

Venison prices, which have slid all year and remain weak, could come back with post Covid-19 demand from key markets, Penny said.

"We see light at the end of the tunnel for venison producers. In the key German market, the Covid vaccine rollout will help boost demand and venison prices over the year.

"Mind you, the pickup will be gradual, reflecting the relatively slow pace of growth in Germany."

Deer farmers would likely have to wait until later in the year for an uplift in farmgate prices, Penny said.