17 Oct 2011

North and South confidence divide emerging says economist

7:35 am on 17 October 2011

An economist says a confidence divide appears to be emerging between the North and South Islands, as the Canterbury rebuild gets delayed even further.

ANZ-Roy Morgan's monthly consumer confidence index fell less than half a point to 112.2 in October.

A reading above 100 shows optimism, and the index has fallen nine points since its peak in June.

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie says that's encouraging given the growing global concern about the European debt crisis.

But confidence isn't evenly spread, with Auckland remaining the most optimistic region, and sentiment in Canterbury continuing to wane.

Mr Bagrie says that's partly due to the Super City's reasonably buoyant housing market, but even still, a split appears to be emerging between the two islands.

He says until the ground stops shaking in Christchurch it's likely that South Island confidence is going to remain below that of the North Island.

Mr Bagrie says once the rebuild starts and there are forward orders, activity, employment and investment, which are key drivers behind consumer confidence, there will be an upward spiral in terms of business confidence.