18 Jul 2011

Inflation predicted at 20-year high

7:57 am on 18 July 2011

Higher food and petrol prices are expected to drive the consumer price index (CPI) to its highest annual level in 20 years.

The data for the three months to June will be released on Monday morning.

Economists are picking a range of 0% - 1.1% for the June quarter, adding to the argument that the Reserve Bank will hike the official cash rate before the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs economist Philip Borkin is picking a quarterly increase of 0.8% which will take annual inflation to 5.2%.

But Mr Borkin says after stripping out rises in food, petrol and GST the underlying inflation rate shows the recovery is subdued.

He remains conservative about the timing of the Reserve Bank raising the OCR but he'll be watching the economic data closely for any changes.

Mr Borkin says he still believes the OCR will be adjusted in March, but acknowledges the Reserve Bank may have justification for tightening earlier.

He says recovery from a big financial crisis and a house price shock can be quite fragile.

Mr Borkin says before any financial tightening there should be more positive signs from the farming sector, more confident consumer spending and an improvement in the global economy.