It's estimated that roughly a fifth of the potential crop may be left on vines this year due to a combination of factors. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Perfect growing conditions for grapes at a time when demand for wine is dropping is likely to result in more fruit left on the vine again this harvest
Kudos, Kiwis, for dramatically dropping your alcohol consumption - especially our younger generations.
But the wine industry wants words.
"In the last 10 to 15 years, each of us, on average, have slashed our consumption of New Zealand wine by 50 percent. I mean, that is dramatic," says wine writer Michael Cooper.
He used to write best-selling wine bibles on the industry here - not so any more. There isn't the demand.
Cooper describes the situation now faced by the industry as a crisis, and not just because of our more sober society.
Tariffs, an international drop in demand, and a couple of years of perfect growing conditions have led to grapes being left unpicked.
Some estimates suggest that last year 100,000 tonnes of grapes - roughly a fifth of the potential crop - was left withering and rotting on the vines. The 2026 harvest is upon us, and the same thing is likely to happen.
"Just imagine if you're a wine maker, and suddenly your domestic market, the people who you're pouring all your passion into catering for, they're now drinking only a half of your wine [in terms of the whole industry] that they used to only 10 or 15 years ago," says Cooper.
As well as that, nearly half (47.8 percent) of the wine we drink here is now imported. About a decade ago that figure was about a third of total consumption.
"Back in 1980, 95 percent of the domestic market was New Zealand (wines)," says Cooper.
It's cheaper to drink imported wine. Plus, some very successful wineries have now been bought out by foreign-owned entities, including world-famous brands such as Montana, which is sourcing grapes more cheaply from Australia.
Wine writer Michael Cooper says the industry is in crisis. Photo: Sharon Brettkelly
"And more and more of those wines that are getting shipped are bulk wines, so what that means is that for the majority of vine producers in New Zealand is they're small, they're family-owned, and they're confronted with the reality that the domestic market is halved. And for so many of them export is something that they'd love to do but really struggle to do. Scale becomes an issue ... if you're making a relatively small volume of wine, then to be traipsing around the world is a challenge."
Such companies are looking to diversify their export attempts away from purely English-speaking markets, saying there's been some complacency about export markets.
The state of the industry "truly is a crisis," says Cooper. "I've certainly seen nothing like this in my time in and around the industry, which dates back to 1975. No one really saw this coming."
Viticultural researcher and wine master Ross Wise, at the Bragato Research Institute in Blenheim, tempers that with some encouraging news about new developments where New Zealand is at the top of its game.
This includes helping wineries making lighter, fresher styles of wines; improving the taste of no and low alcohol wines; trying drought-resistant root stocks; and methods to help manage the costs of production.
He talks to The Detail about the innovation going on in this country, including new canopy systems and developments in pruning.
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